Farmers and agricultural workers have descended in force on Cardiff to protest against a number of the Welsh government’s rural policies, which they claim are putting thousands of jobs and their way of life at risk. Protests have sprung up across Wales over the past few weeks with farmers turning up at political events in tractors and causing delays on roads. It has the potential to become one of Welsh Labour’s biggest crises since devolution 25 years ago.
What are the farmers protesting about?
The main trigger for the protests are proposals in the Welsh government’s sustainable farming scheme (SFS) – its post-Brexit plan for funding the industry from 2025. One of the ideas is that farmers should commit to ensuring 10% of their land is under tree cover. Farmers argue this would be costly, unpractical and leave them overwhelmed with paperwork. Some farmers are also angry at the phasing in of strict rules to control the spreading of human-made fertiliser and animal manure, which are designed to protect water quality in rivers. Last, but not least, is the effort to tackle bovine TB.
What protests have taken place so far?
The farmers have chosen their targets carefully during their “Enough is enough” campaign. At the start of February, they turned up in tractors outside the offices of the Welsh government’s rural affairs minister, Lesley Griffiths, in Wrexham, north Wales, and eggs were smashed on the doorstep. They then focused on the contest to select the next Welsh first minister and more than 100 tractors and pickup trucks arrived at a leadership hustings in Newtown, mid Wales. The same sort of numbers disrupted traffic on the A48 near Carmarthen in south-west Wales, prompting police to ask drivers to avoid the area. When the first minister, Mark Drakeford, went to Rhyl in north Wales to open an engineering centre, farmers were there in force to meet him. They were out in north Wales again last week when the UK prime minister, Rishi Sunak, was in Llandudno for the Welsh Conservative conference. Sunak criticised Labour’s policies and told the protesters: “We’ve got your back.”
Many farmers want a badger cull but the Welsh government refuses to introduce one.
Who are the protesters?
The campaign has not been organised by a farming union but is very much a grassroots movement with protests organised through social media and word of mouth. A Facebook group, Welsh farmers’ protests, has more than 12,000 members.
What is the economic impact of the SFS?
A report on the possible impact makes sobering reading. If there was 100% take-up it suggests it could lead to a 10.8% reduction in Welsh livestock numbers, an 11% cut in labour on Welsh farms – the equivalent of 5,500 jobs according to NFU Cymru – and a loss of millions of pounds to the industry. The NFU Cymru president, Aled Jones, called this a “shocking scenario”.
Why are these measure being taken by the Welsh government?
Farming is responsible for approximately 10% of total UK greenhouse gas emissions and 47% of the UK’s methane emissions. Most of this is driven by livestock farming. Farming methods have also been responsible for large amounts of biodiversity loss. For example, in 2022 the UK farmland bird index was 60% below its 1970 value. Most of these biodiversity declines started in the 1970s as farming methods changed. Many farmers have begun to change this in recent years, switching to more organic practices, digging ponds for wildlife, planting trees and tending hedgerows. However, this change is not happening fast enough according to climate and nature experts, so the governments of the UK are changing their farming payments policies to reward restoring some farmland to nature. The Welsh government has argued its proposed SFS scheme would secure food production but also address the climate and nature emergencies. Ministers point out there have been 10 roadshows across Wales since January with more than 3,200 farmers spoken to about SFS. The consultation comes to an end on 7 March.
What do the other parties say?
Plenty. The Tory leader in Wales, Andrew RT Davies, said the party would put the SFS “in the bin where it belongs”, claiming Labour is against farmers and rural communities. As the farmers gathered at the Senedd, members were due to debate and vote on a motion brought by the Conservatives calling for the SFS to be scrapped, followed by a Plaid Cymru motion calling for urgent changes to the approach to bovine TB.
How bad is this for Labour?
Labour has governed in Wales since devolution but it has had a bad start to 2024. In January, junior doctors went on strike for the first time and hundreds protested on the steps of the Senedd, not far from the statue of Labour hero Aneurin Bevan, who spearheaded the foundation of the NHS. It is also still taking flak for introducing a 20mph speed limit across much of Wales. But the farmers’ protest may become even bigger.
Is there any sign the government is listening?
Yes. Hours before the protest, Drakeford and Griffiths announced initiatives designed to calm the farmers. On the SFS, they said they wanted to make sure woodland and habitat requirements do not make farms unviable and would carry out an “updated economic analysis”. They said they would consider an “evidence-based review” of alternative proposals to achieve carbon sequestration within the SFS – a signal that the tree-planting requirements may be eased. The ministers also said they would appoint a bovine TB technical advisory group and provide an additional £20m to help farmers tackle the issue of river pollution. They also reminded farmers that a new first minister would be in place next month, who would, no doubt, come to the issue with fresh eyes.
What is the wider political context?
It is a febrile time for the farming community, which has felt ignored as costs rise and they are asked to take extra environmental measures . At the same time, rural concerns are going to be a large part of the next general election, with the Conservatives in the rest of the UK worried about losing their countryside seats. For the first time, it looks like most of the rural constituencies in England will go Liberal Democrat and Labour. That’s probably why Rishi Sunak joined the farming protests on Friday.
But another group is also trying to take advantage of farmers’ concerns – the No Farmers No Food campaign, which met Sunak, is attempting to draw a connection between unpopular aspects of farming policy and the net zero agenda in general. Its founder, James Melville, who is also a leading member of the Together Declaration, which began as an anti-Covid lockdown group, but pushes against various policies, from London’s ultra-low emission zone to net zero. The No Farmers No Food campaign calls for an end to an “obsession” with net zero, and has shared a conspiracy theory that climate policies are a route for the WEF to force farmers to give up their land so the human population is forced to eat bugs. The yellow No Farmers No Food banners are expected to be out in force at the protest, and it could be used as a recruitment opportunity for the anti-net zero campaign. The Welsh Conservatives have shared its campaign message on social media.
Will the protests stop here?
Probably not. The farmers are unlikely to think the government has moved enough and protests are likely to continue. On 7 March, NFU Cymru is planning to place 5,500 pairs of wellies on the steps of the Senedd to represent the jobs at risk. And the grassroots tractor campaign is likely to continue.
• This article was amended on 1 March 2024 to clarify details of the tree cover requirements of the sustainable farming scheme plans, and to reflect that the impact assessment conclusions cited represent a worst-case scenario.
