First, the word "lagging" is in quotes both there and in that headline for a reason. That's because I don't really believe that electric vehicle sales are cratering as hard as many headlines would have you believe. It's an easy and clicky narrative to run with, but the truth is much more nuanced. Still, that's the narrative the entire industry seems to have adopted this year.
It's true that EV sales in 2024 aren't proving to be on this predictable, up-and-to-the-right growth curve that automakers and their suppliers hoped for. It's also true that many brands are up on electric sales while others are down, that an upcoming election that could reset emissions rules and incentives is throwing everything into turmoil, that charging networks are taking longer than expected to build out, that most Western and other Asian automakers are getting hammered by homegrown competition in China and that high interest rates are likely to make 2024 a down year for all cars across the board.
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An all-electric future
Nearly all automakers have committed to going all-electric at some point in the future, some with harder and firmer dates than others. But a mix of complicated factors has led many to reevaluate their plans instead.
But the doom-and-gloom is hard to buy when you see that Ford's EV sales were up 31% in July alone, or that Hyundai and Kia are seeing rising sales, or that General Motors has more affordable models in the pipeline. Any of those automakers could hit 100,000 EVs produced this year, something only Tesla has done to date.
The truth is that a lot of these doubts seem to come when you consider EV sales in aggregate, particularly in America. And there are two reasons those don't look great.
I'll point to this data point from The Detroit Free Press (subscription required), which today had an excellent and in-depth look at uneven EV adoption and what it means for the paper's Big Three hometown automakers. Let's dig in:
U.S. EV adoption is growing at a pace more sluggish than most carmakers and experts had predicted. Cox Automotive said in June its full-year forecast puts EV purchases this year at about 1.3 million vehicles, or 8.3% of total new car sales, a slight boost from last year, when EV market share was 7.6%.
But Cox had expected EV sales to be closer to 9.5% of total sales for the year. Part of the reason for the reduced forecast was an unexpectedly large sales decline from U.S. EV leader Tesla and the slow launch of affordable EVs by General Motors.
I can't, in good faith, pin all of the EV adoption troubles on those two factors. But they have a lot to do with what's going on. Basically, without the Chevrolet Bolt EV and EUV—the $25,000-ish twins that carried GM's electric sales on their back for years until their discontinuation at the end of 2023—you get sales data without a significant player.
Since the Bolt duo sold almost 63,000 examples last year, the net effect is almost like saying the SUV segment would be in decline if Ford had stopped making the Expedition. It's not quite that high, but it's in the same galaxy. GM sold nearly as many Bolts alone as Ford sold EVs in 2023.
Gallery: 2026 Chevrolet Bolt
And with the Bolt phased out and nothing to make up for it—save for whatever remaining Bolts were on dealer lots at the start of this year—of course, EV sales would be down in aggregate. While GM has high hopes for the affordable Equinox EV, and I do too, it's going to be a long time before it hits Bolt levels of critical mass. If it ever does.
Still, things are looking up. GM hit a new quarterly record for EV sales in Q2 of this year. But if it's to break annual records, all Ultium EV models will have to come together to compensate for the lack of the Bolt models—and then hold the line until a reborn Bolt EUV debuts next year.
And then there's Tesla.
Let's just put it this way: when the clear, global market leader in EVs fails to keep its lineup of cars updated amid intensifying new competition, focuses on AI and robots instead of selling cars and has a CEO whose antics are pushing people away from the brand, sales are going to drop. And they are. Sales of non-Tesla EVs are surging, and as Bloomberg has reported all year, any EV slowdown seems to be a Tesla slowdown specifically. The Cybertruck won't save the company; some 90% of its sales are of the Model 3 and Model Y duo, and while the Model 3 got a decent update, the worldwide best-selling Model Y is really showing its age.
So when the company that made up more than 56% of U.S. EV sales last year starts a hard slump, then yes, it brings all total EV sales down with them. The loss of the Bolt and the decline of Tesla are creating a great deal of uncertainty in the overall market. It's like a basketball team that loses its two best players at once, like the Spurs in the late 1990s if injuries had somehow taken out Duncan and Robinson at the same time.
Gallery: Tesla Model Y Juniper Renderings
Yet the EV market in America in 2024 is faring far better than that. Incentives and deals still underpin it, and those cannot last forever. And the presidential election could disrupt policies that boost sales and incentivize manufacturing in America. But looked at this way, there's nothing to indicate that the influx of new, affordable EV models—the Kia EV3, the reborn Bolt, whatever Ford is planning, and so on—won't be able to juice things again. Plus, automakers are still struggling to make profitable EVs. That's coming sooner than you may think.
Sometimes, it's okay if growth isn't some up-and-to-the-right curve all of the time. It's just hard to squeeze that idea into a headline.
Contact the author: patrick.george@insideevs.com
