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Patrick E. Shea, Senior Lecturer in International Relations and Global Governance, University of Glasgow

Why a US minerals deal with Ukraine won’t deter Russian aggression

The US vice-president, J.D. Vance, recently told Fox News that “the very best security guarantee” to prevent Russia from invading Ukraine again was “to give Americans economic upside in the future of Ukraine”.

The implication is that the much-debated minerals deal, in which an investment fund managed by Kyiv and Washington would receive revenue from Ukraine’s natural resources, would create American economic interests in Ukraine. American security interests, it is suggested, could soon follow.

Vance’s comments came with the deal hanging in the balance. A meeting at the White House on February 28, where the deal was expected to be signed, turned into a shouting match between Vance, the US president, Donald Trump, and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky.

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