The Associated Press (AP) released their finalists for its eight major regular season awards, including most valuable player, defensive player of the year and offensive/defensive player of the year. The nominees are roughly who you’d expect: a smattering a superstars who impacted the game across nearly five months of games to make their teams better.
While we already know who AP voters chose to fill up their All-Pro teams, we’ll have to wait until Super Bowl week to find out this year’s individual award winners. Those won’t go live until the league’s NFL Honors show in primetime February 9.
This, of course, doesn’t prevent us from speculating. We all pretty much know who this season’s MVP is going to be thanks to Patrick Mahomes’ stellar play and Jalen Hurts’ late-season injury. We’ve got a pretty good idea on the other awards, too. But there’s room for debate.
Let’s do that. Our picks prognosticators: Christian D’Andrea, Charles Curtis and Robert Zeglinski will once again steam into the breach to be kinda right about NFL stuff. Their predictions follow, but if you want Christian’s full Pro Football Writers Association ballot for their awards, you can find that here.
AP Most Valuable Player
Finalists: Josh Allen, Bills QB. Joe Burrow, Bengals QB. Jalen Hurts, Eagles QB. Justin Jefferson, Vikings WR. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs QB
Christian D’Andrea: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
From strictly a wins standpoint, it’s Hurts. The Eagles are 15-1 with him in the lineup and 0-2 when Gardner Minshew starts.
But that’s a flawed way to look at it, especially when Mahomes was demonstrably better than anyone else at quarterback in 2022. He led the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns. He led the league in QBR and expected points added. He was the engine behind the AFC’s top seed.
It’s gonna be Mahomes. It’ll probably be unanimous.
Charles Curtis: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Fine, yes, it’ll PROBABLY be Mahomes. But narrative counts for something even if it shouldn’t. And Hurts has the narrative part of it sewn up with ease: The Eagles were amazing with him and terrible without him.
Robert Zeglinski: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
The Chiefs were supposed to be in a rebuilding year. They were supposed to fall off as a “juggernaut” AFC West put them in their place. Without Tyreek Hill, the NFL’s Big Red Machine would be no more. About that.
Instead of rebuilding, the Chiefs won 14 games — tied for the second-most of the Mahomes-Andy Reid era — en route to a fifth consecutive AFC title game. Arguably, on a statistical basis, Mahomes had the best season of his career, with all things considered, on a slightly retooled team. He is the reason they remain a terrifying powerhouse.
The 2022 campaign was not the season the Chiefs fell off.
It was the year Mahomes, once and for all, cemented himself as the face of the league. Others in Cincinnati and Buffalo built compelling arguments of their own but had little else to stand on in comparison to the man in the red No. 15.
AP Defensive Player of the Year
Finalists: Nick Bosa, 49ers EDGE, Chris Jones, Chiefs DT, Micah Parsons, Cowboys LB
Christian: Nick Bosa, 49ers
Bosa has too many factors working in his favor not to win this award. Best player on the best defense in the league? Yep. Led the NFL in sacks? Yep. Led the NFL in QB hits? Hooooo buddy, he had 13 more than the next closest guy. He was also tied for second in tackles for loss, knocked down four passes and forced three fumbles. Real juggernaut stuff.
I’ll also add that while all three finalists are worthy, Maxx Crosby and Matthew Judon deserve mention. This should have been a five-man class of nominees.
Charles: Nick Bosa, 49ers
No arguments here. The best player on the best defense in the league.
Robert: Nick Bosa, 49ers
Bosa began his NFL career with a Defensive Rookie of the Year Award as the centerpiece of a team that would win the NFC and play in Super Bowl 54. Roughly three seasons later, he remains the centerpiece of the 49ers’ defense, is running on all cylinders, and doesn’t turn 26 until October.
What I’m saying is this won’t be the first time he takes home a DPOY award. He should probably save some space on that good ole mahogany mantel.
AP Offensive Player of the Year
Finalists: Tyreek Hill, Dolphins WR, Jalen Hurts, Eagles QB, Justin Jefferson, Vikings WR, Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs QB
Christian: Justin Jefferson, Vikings
Forget the fact he dragged the Vikings to an NFC North title in a down year from Kirk Cousins and the backdrop of a bottom-seven defense. Forget leading the league in receptions and receiving yards. Justin Jefferson is the man who did this on fourth-and-18 against a top five defense.
Make him president.
Charles: Justin Jefferson, Vikings
This is like the Oscar they give to best screenplay where MVP is best picture. What a season, and you’ve got to acknowledge it even though he wasn’t the most valuable player.
Robert: Justin Jefferson, Vikings
Minnesota did not win 13 games because it was a solid squad and a legit contender in the NFC. They won 13 games because they had the league’s best playmaker in Jefferson embarrassing defenses on a weekly basis despite him being the clear focal point of their game plans.
Just look at the Vikings’ four losses. In three of them, Jefferson had meager statistics. That is no coincidence. In the other, against the Lions — a 200-plus-yard day — he kept SKOL-land afloat more than it should’ve been. I’m of the camp this is one of the handfuls of greatest WR seasons in NFL history.
AP Offensive Rookie of the Year
Finalists: Brock Purdy, 49ers QB, Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks RB, Garrett Wilson, Jets WR
Christian: Garrett Wilson, Jets
Purdy went undefeated in the regular season but only played six games as the team’s primary quarterback and spent those throwing to the strongest supporting cast in football. Wilson was thrown into an offense where the guys throwing him passes were:
- Zach Wilson
- Joe Flacco
- Mike White
- Chris Streveler
and he still finished with 83 catches for 1,103 yards. That’s all the edge he needed to earn my vote.
Charles: Garrett Wilson, Jets
Can’t argue with ANY of that. Walker and Purdy had short-ish seasons, too, for what it’s worth.
Robert: Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks
With all due respect to Wilson — who might have had a “Ja’Marr Chase rookie season” if not for his circus car of QBs — I think Walker III was the most impressive young playmaker of the year. The Seahawks, with Geno Smith becoming a top-flight quarterback, don’t sniff the playoffs without Walker III’s capacity to press the hole and abuse defenses. I can’t argue against a man with five 100-yard games as the engine of an offense constructed around his skill set.
I’m just excited to see what happens in a healthier with an even bigger workload. Pray for anyone who has to tackle or just get in Walker III’s way in 2023. It won’t be pretty.
AP Defensive Rookie of the Year
Finalists: Sauce Gardner, Jets CB, Aidan Hutchinson, Lions EDGE, Tariq Woolen, Seahawks CB
Christian: Sauce Gardner, Jets
Gardner was good enough to be a first-team All-Pro. Personally I liked James Bradberry and Jaire Alexander a little better, but there’s no denying how potent the former Cincinnati star was in coverage. NFL quarterbacks opted to test him every week, only to watch him pass with flying colors.
Gardner led the league in passes defensed (20) and allowed just a 62.7 passer rating in coverage. That was enough to eke out a win over Woolen for the top spot on my ballot.
Charles: Sauce Gardner, Jets
I recently had to tell a suffering longtime Jets fan that it was OK, because the Jets drafted a player who might be the best at his position RIGHT NOW. Sauce is that guy. Pretty amazing for a rookie and a good reason to vote for him here.
Robert: Sauce Gardner, Jets
Not since Darrelle Revis have the Jets had a cornerback this good. How else can you talk about a ROOKIE First-Team All-Pro? Gardner was a top-four pick in April and more than exceeded the hype. Now he might soon create his own deserted island for tragically stranded receivers in the long term the way his future First-Ballot Hall of Fame predecessor once did. And those receivers won’t get any water (big plays) either.
AP Comeback Player of the Year
Finalists: Saquon Barkley, Giants RB, Christian McCaffrey, 49ers RB, Geno Smith, Seahawks QB
Christian: Geno Smith, Seahawks
Not a lot of great candidates for the award this year. Smith doesn’t really qualify in my eyes. Not because he didn’t rise up from a down year, but because this wasn’t a comeback — it was a breakthrough.
Comeback suggests he’d ever played at this level before. That is untrue. Smith has never been as good as he was in 2022. While his numbers were padded slightly by meaningless drives in already-decided games, the journeyman QB proved he could be an effective starter in the NFL. And since my pick, Jared Goff, isn’t an option here the award goes to Geno.
Charles: Christian McCaffrey, 49ers
I don’t want to keep agreeing here, so I’ll throw in a vote for CMC, who exploded after a lost year to injuries … for two different teams!
Robert: Geno Smith, Seahawks
I do want to keep agreeing here because I love Geno too much to discuss anyone else. He was the consummate redemption regular-season story of 2022.
Smith went to the Jets, was predictably failed by them, spent years as a much-maligned backup and meme in the football world, and turned himself into a top-10 starter the moment he took the majority of the snaps again. These kinds of turnarounds just don’t happen at this level of the game.
Plus, he was a living quote machine!
The haters writing to Smith but him not writing back might have been the best decision he’s ever made.
AP Coach of the Year
Finalists: Brian Daboll, Giants, Sean McDermott, Bills, Doug Pederson, Jaguars, Kyle Shanahan, 49ers, Nick Sirianni, Eagles
Christian: Brian Daboll, Giants
He made Daniel Jones a viable starting quarterback and piloted the New York Giants to their first playoff win since Eli Manning won Super Bowl 46. The rest of these guys were great. None of them made “Daniel Jones, playoff game-winning QB” happen.
Charles: Brian Daboll, Giants
I ALMOST went for Pederson, who took a team badly — BADLY — mismanaged by Urban Meyer and turned it into a playoff team in just one season. But Daboll deserves it for taking a Giants team with not a ton of talent and shaping it into a postseason squad.
Robert: Brian Daboll, Giants
Don’t you think Josh Allen misses Daboll? Like, a lot? Good for Daniel “Dimes/Dashes” Jones to finally have a coach who believes in him. Good for the Giants, a team with a small cadre of quality players that had no business playing in mid-January, in having a coach who built a beyond-impressive first-year culture.
I shudder to consider the prospects for the rest of the NFC if Daboll ever gets better players all around. This team quite literally only got the conference’s sixth seed and a postseason win because of the NFL’s new Genius Coach.
AP Assistant Coach of the Year
Finalists: Ben Johnson, Lions OC, DeMeco Ryans, 49ers DC, Shane Steichen, Eagles OC
Christian: Ben Johnson, Lions
Let’s keep with my theme of appreciating coaches who lifted broken quarterbacks. Johnson restored Jared Goff to pretty-goodness despite a receiving corps filled with Amon-Ra St. Brown and a grocery bag of broken toys. The Lions’ quarterback finished 2022 as a top 10 quarterback by most measures long after he’d been written off by the Rams. That’s a big deal! Like, earn your OC assistant coach of the year big.
Charles: DeMeco Ryans, 49ers
That defense, my goodness.
Robert: Ben Johnson, Lions
The Rams cast Jared Goff off as cannon fodder in a trade for Matthew Stafford. And thanks to Ben Johnson, he became an extremely productive quarterback again within two years. Throw in a creative running scheme based around the power of the incomparable delight known as Jamaal Williams and the speed of D’Andre Swift, and you have a coordinator who pushed all the right buttons for an elite attack in 2022. I, personally, am shocked he didn’t take a head coaching gig to specifically stay in Detroit.
Normally, you strike when the coaching vacancy iron is hot. Though, something tells me that Johnson will remain a hot commodity around this time next year.
