Who Will Play In Mountain West Title Game?
Four teams in the mix for the championship.
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It couldn’t be made easy
The Mountain West has been wild this year with some unexpected results, and the biggest being UNLV having the inside track to hosting the Mountain West title game.
First off, no school has clinched and there are four schools remaining in the mix. UNLV is the leader with one loss and then Air Force, San Jose State, and Boise State all have two losses each.
The way the Mountain West tiebreakers work, it could come down to the computer ratings, if there is a three-way tie. These are the old BCS computers that the league usses.
The tiebreaker scenarios are a bit contradictory and BJ Rains of Bronco Nation News confirmed via the league that if there is a three-team tie for first and second, is decided by those composite computer rankings if the teams didn’t play head to head.
Since there’s been a lot of discussion on it, here’s the full 2023 tiebreaker scenarios from the Mountain West.
Again I confirmed with the Mountain West that a 3-team tie for spots 1 and 2 is decided by composite rankings for both spots if the teams didn’t all play H2H. pic.twitter.com/cA5ZscQfNP
— B.J. Rains (@BJRains) November 20, 2023
This would come into play if Boise State and UNLV end up with two losses because the Broncos and Rebels did not play each other.
The games of note this next weekend are Boise State hosting Air Force Friday afternoon and then on Saturday it is San Jose State traveling to UNLV.
There are quite a few scenarios for who can be in the title game.
UNLV scenarios:
For UNLV it is as simple as win and they get in and likely host whoever they face. If the Rebels lose to San Jose State they are still likely in title game and host as well.
If UNLV loses and Air Force beats Boise State, then it goes straight to computers due to three-way tie among San Jose State, Air Force and UNLV as those schools are 1-1 against each other. Rebels are still likely to be in the top two and be in the championship.
If UNLV loses but the Broncos win, that would then mean two losses among Boise State, San Jose State and the Rebels. Since UNLV did not play Boise State the record amongst those teams is not used in the min-round robin format. It goes to computer rankings, unless the Rebels are ranked in the College Football Top 25. That seems unlikely.
At this moment on Sunday night, not all computer rankings are out and the Rebels have a huge lead as Jay Tust points out.
UPDATE: 3 of the 4 computer polls the Mountain West uses have updated today, and #BoiseState has increased their lead over #SJSU.
Current averages:
• UNLV = 35.5
• Boise State = 66.5
• SJSU = 72.0I assume that gap will grow when the 4th and final poll is released.#TuSTATS https://t.co/VNq84Wetne
— Jay Tust (@KTVBSportsGuy) November 19, 2023
Those numbers all but assure that UNLV is in regardless. It could be close if San Jose State upsets the Rebels and Boise State wins as that win over the Rebels is much better than the Air Force win that the Broncos can earn.
Boise State Scenarios:
Boise State must win in any of these scenarios to make the title game. The Broncos are playing for a title with them winning and UNLV winning. This is the only 100% for sure option to make it to the title game.
The other scenario is a win, a San Jose State win over UNLV and then it goes to computers for who is the second team. Broncos are currently second in the composite rankings. There is a chance that the Spartans jump the Broncos but the gap is wide and favors Boise State.
San Jose State Scenarios
San Jose State must defeat UNLV and that would create a 1-1 record among Rebels, Falcons, and Spartans for first place. Then it goes to the composite computer rankings. The Spartans are third at the moment and a Falcons win over the Broncos likely would get San Jose State into the title game, due to San Jose State being higher ranked over Air Force now and that is before a potential Spartans win.
If Boise State tops Air Force the tie breaker goes directly to computer rankings. The Broncos likely hold the edge, as the do now, but who knows how the computers will figure themselves as there are games on each teams schedule that could impact these numbers.
Air Force Scenario
Air Force has a clear path. If they win against Boise State and UNLV beats San Jose State then it’s a Rebels vs. Falcons rematch.
Now, if the Falcons win and UNLV loses it would create a three-way tie among Air Force, San Jose State, and UNLV.
Since not all three played in the regular season it then goes to computer rankings to determine the champion. UNLV seems safe even in a loss, so it would come down to Falcons vs. Spartans in the computer ratings.
Most likely scenario is UNLV in the championship game and hosting against Boise State. The Broncos are a sizable 6.5-point favorite at home against the Falcons.
