The race for the finals and top four remains fierce with five rounds to go in the AFL's home and away season.
The last few rounds have provided a string of upsets, so anyone trying to make predictions is on a hiding to nothing.
But with some teams beginning to slip out of contention, the trend may not continue in the final five weeks. So, who do we think will make the finals, who can get the double chance and who is at risk of missing out? Read on.
Geelong
Prediction: 18-4 (1st)
There is no debate about it, the Cats are the form team of the AFL right now.
They have won eight games on the bounce and are first in the league in a string of key stats in the second half of the season, including scores for, scores against — with a percentage of 165.6 in their last six matches — inside 50 differential and more.
They are clicking all round the ground — and if Patrick Dangerfield can get back to his best as well, then good luck stopping them.
They should win their last five and clinch top spot and a home final at the Cattery. Then we'll see whether their game can hold up in September.
Melbourne
Prediction: 17-5 (2nd)
The big question here is... which Demons turns up for the last five rounds?
Will it be the one that when challenged against Port Adelaide produced a ruthless burst of football that put the game away in short order?
Or will it be the team that has been turned over by top-eight sides Fremantle, Sydney, Collingwood and Geelong?
It's not an easy run-in, and the Demons are by no means in top gear yet — but they have a team full of stars and the absolute X-factor in Kysaiah Pickett.
Even if they lose to the Dockers next week in Perth, they should have the double chance and not have to travel. Game on.
Sydney
Prediction: 16-6 (3rd)
The Swans have been an enigma this season. At their best, their ball movement and intensity has been almost irresistible, giving them wins over Melbourne at the MCG and Fremantle in Perth.
Their worst, however, has produced periods of tired, ineffective play that leads to damaging losses, against the likes of Essendon and Port Adelaide.
The keys to their improvement have been some of the younger brigade — including ball magnet Chad Warner, Errol Gulden and Ollie Florent — the drive of Callum Mills and Luke Parker, and the combination of the McCartin brothers down back.
Their fixture gives them a big chance — but it all comes down to whether the Swans can hold their nerve and their consistency from here. If they can, they should finish top four.
Fremantle
Prediction: 16-6 (4th)
The Dockers could well sweep their last five games, and they should go in close to favourites when they host Melbourne in round 20.
But the trip to Docklands the following week to face the Western Bulldogs shapes as the possible banana skin for Justin Longmuir's side.
It could well be the metaphorical toss of the coin (and a fair bit of percentage) that decides whether Freo, the Swans or the Lions finish third or fourth, meaning the Dockers could be mounting some frantic attacks in the final quarter against GWS.
But the way they're going, Fremantle should have a tasty trip to the MCG or Geelong in the first week of the finals.
Brisbane
Prediction: 16-6 (5th)
The Lions are still capable of running the table from here if they can find their best form.
But although there are extenuating circumstances for the loss against the Bombers, the bottom line is that Brisbane's recent performances put them a rung (or two) down from the real flag chances.
Realistically, the next five weeks are about maximising the margins against Gold Coast and St Kilda and limiting losses to perhaps one against the Demons so the Queenslanders have a chance to stick in the top four.
It may still not be enough, however.
Collingwood
Prediction: 15-7 (6th)
The Magpies have been playing great football, and they look like a cohesive, committed group under new coach Craig McRae.
While draining for their fans, the Pies' ability to hold their nerve and continually win the close ones is impressive.
They have three "away" games left, but only one away from the MCG. However, there are no 'gimmes' in Collingwood's remaining matches, and it is hard to see how they can keep their winning run going through to round 23.
Between that and the fact their percentage is inferior to all the teams around them, it's more likely that the Pies will host an elimination final in round one. After that, though, who knows?
Carlton
Prediction: 14-8 (7th)
Defeats to St Kilda and Geelong have damaged the Blues' top-four hopes, and it's conceivable Carlton will go into finals on the back of three straight losses.
But at their best they can still cause some serious damage in September.
The big plus is the impending return of Marc Pittonet in the ruck. He is going to be rusty, given he has missed most of the season with a knee injury.
But if he can get a warm-up against the Giants and/or the Crows, that will give the Blues the best chance of competing with the Lions and Demons in rounds 21 and 22.
Western Bulldogs
Prediction: 12-10 (8th)
The big win by the Western Bulldogs over St Kilda in round 18 was impressive, but it does not make us forget the warning signals from previous weeks where the team was soundly beaten by Brisbane and Sydney.
The upside is that the drive of Tom Liberatore and the Bulldogs midfield will pose a difficult challenge for any opponent from here on in, and the returns of Bailey Smith from suspension and forward Josh Bruce from injury could be key to their chances.
Whether Luke Beveridge and his men get to the finals may well hinge on whether they can get a result at Docklands against Fremantle — but with a number of their rivals losing form at the wrong time, the Bulldogs appear to have the advantage. Maybe.
Richmond
Prediction: 11-11 (9th)
The Tigers have now lost three of their last four, and the defeats to the Suns and the Kangaroos seem destined to cost them dearly.
Missing Dustin Martin and Tom Lynch for the Fremantle game this weekend is not the best start to Richmond's last five weeks.
They are due to get some key players back — including the previously mentioned duo, plus Kane Lambert — but it may be too late, with the Dockers game followed by the Lions and Power.
If they are to have a chance, they must convert better. There were many reasons why the Tigers lost to North Melbourne, but Jack Riewoldt's return of 2.6 did not help.
Port Adelaide
Prediction: 11-11 (10th)
The fact we are still talking about Port Adelaide in connection with finals is something of a miracle.
The Power had a nightmare start to the season, losing their first five games of 2022 and ramping up the pressure on coach Ken Hinkley.
The men from Alberton have rebounded admirably, winning eight of their next 12 matches, and pushing Fremantle and Melbourne close away from home in the last three weeks.
It still all looks very unlikely from here, however. The Power has to at least beat one of Geelong and Collingwood in the next fortnight to have a realistic shot at snatching eighth spot
If they still have a chance with a round to go, then watch out Adelaide Oval, because the Crows will be waiting in what could be an explosive Showdown.
Gold Coast
Prediction: 11-11 (11th)
Plenty of pundits and fans have written off the Suns on a number of occasions this year, with the default expectation that the team would tail off in the second half of the year.
They have defied those expectations and garnered respect for staying in the hunt, but the Suns seemed to run out of energy against Essendon last weekend.
Now they have to beat the Hawks, Eagles and Kangaroos, find a way of downing Brisbane or Geelong, and hope other results go their way.
However, the Suns and re-signed coach Stuart Dew are still on track to beat their previous best finish (12th) and record (10-12), and if they can finish off the season on a high there will be optimism for a big 2023 with a returning Ben King added to the mix.
If they can come away with a win from the Q-Clash, however, watch out — the fairytale might still be on.
St Kilda
Prediction: 11-11 (12th)
The task for St Kilda is growing week by week, and the lack of intensity in the first three quarters of the loss to the Bulldogs was a worrying sign.
The Saints are 1-5 since the bye, and they have not looked close to being a finals side — their average losing margin in that time has been 33 points.
The calf injury to Paddy Ryder is just the icing on the cake, and you can't really argue on form that they will get one or more wins against either Geelong, Brisbane and Sydney in the final three rounds.
Without that, a promising season for Brett Ratten's side looks like it will end in disappointment.
