The 2024-25 college basketball season is underway, and as the games heat up, so does the speculation surrounding coaching hot seats. Topping the list of potential early-season dismissals is Villanova’s Kyle Neptune. After a tumultuous start to the season, Neptune’s future with the Wildcats looks increasingly uncertain. Here’s a breakdown of the current odds and why certain coaches are under the microscope.
Next College Basketball to be Fired Odds
| Coach (Team) | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Neptune (Villanova) | -125 | 55.6% |
| Bobby Hurley (Arizona State) | +200 | 33.3% |
| Buzz Williams (Texas A&M) | +400 | 20.0% |
| Shaheen Holloway (Seton Hall) | +700 | 12.5% |
| Wes Miller (Cincinnati) | +800 | 11.1% |
| Porter Moser (Oklahoma) | +900 | 10.0% |
| Mike Woodson (Indiana) | +1200 | 7.7% |
Kyle Neptune: The Clear Favorite
Kyle Neptune took over Villanova in 2022, following the retirement of Jay Wright, who left the program in a dominant position. Neptune has struggled to meet those lofty expectations. Villanova finished 17-17 last season, a marked drop for a program accustomed to competing deep into March.
This year has started even worse. A shocking 75-63 loss to Columbia, a mid-tier Ivy League program, has drawn sharp criticism. That defeat exposed significant issues in the Wildcats’ defense and offensive cohesion. Another disappointing loss to Saint Joseph’s hasn’t helped Neptune’s case. Villanova’s fanbase and administration have been vocal about expecting results, and Neptune’s leash appears to be shortening quickly, but will his buyout prove a problem?
At -125 odds, he’s the frontrunner to be the first coach fired, with a 55.6% implied probability.
Bobby Hurley: Under Fire at Arizona State
Arizona State coach Bobby Hurley is under scrutiny with +200 odds for potential early dismissal. The Sun Devils have started the season 5-1, but have yet to face any real competition barring Gonzaga, in a game that they lost.
Despite the strong start, Hurley’s teams have historically struggled with consistency. With Arizona State’s recent move to the Big 12 Conference, expectations are high. If the team falters in conference play, Hurley could face increased pressure to deliver results.
Buzz Williams and Shaheen Holloway: Early Setbacks
Buzz Williams (+400) has had a bumpy start to the season at Texas A&M. The Aggies stumbled in their opener, losing 64-61 to UCF, which raised questions about their preparation. While Williams has steadied the ship since then, that early loss still looms large.
Shaheen Holloway (+700) faced a tough blow when Seton Hall dropped a game to Fordham on a buzzer-beater. Holloway’s first season was buoyed by excitement, but the luster is beginning to wear off as the Pirates struggle to gain momentum this year.
Starting the Season on the Hot Seat: Wes Miller and Porter Moser
Wes Miller’s Cincinnati squad (+800) has shown flashes of promise but lacks the consistency expected in his third season at the helm. The Bearcats face a tough schedule, and if results don’t improve, Miller could find himself under increasing scrutiny.
Porter Moser (+900) will face a tough challenge with Oklahoma in the ever-competitive SEC. However, with a 4-0 start to the season, his seat isn’t as hot as others on this list, but his inability to elevate the Sooners into a consistent tournament contender continues to raise doubts.
Which College Basketball Coach Will be Fired Next?
The early season always brings surprises, but for coaches on the hot seat, every game carries added weight. Kyle Neptune and Bobby Hurley are clear front-runners for dismissal based on their team’s performance and fan expectations. Coaches like Buzz Williams and Wes Miller also have their work cut out for them. As the season progresses, these odds will evolve, but for now, Neptune remains the name to watch.
