The 95th Academy Awards are just days away, and this year’s race for Best Picture is a stacked and diverse group of films.
We have two legitimate non-Marvel blockbusters in Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water. We have a truly brutal war epic from Germany in All Quiet on the Western Front, a ridiculously awesome and original multiversal adventure in Everything Everywhere All at Once, and an Irish black tragicomedy in The Banshees of Inisherin.
Steven Spielberg is in the race too with his semi-autobiographical drama The Fabelmans (though, it seems like he thinks Maverick should win). We also have a traditional biopic in Elvis (well, as traditional as a Baz Luhrmann film can be) and a biopic about a fictional person in Todd Field’s psychological drama Tár, which is a real showcase for Cate Blanchett, the favorite to win Best Actress, running just ahead of Michelle Yeoh. Women Talking and Triangle of Sadness round out the field.
Ahead of the 2023 Oscars, we — self-proclaimed movie experts at For The Win — are here to tell you who should win and who will win for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor and Best Actress.
Let’s dive in.
Best Actress
Mitchell
Should win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Will win: Cate Blanchett, Tár
I won’t be mad if Blanchett wins. She’s certainly deserving and her performance as Lydia Tar might be her best performance ever (aside, of course, from her turn as Hela in Thor: Ragnarok). But Yeoh was just so great in EEAAO while delivering this wide-ranging performance in a film that is part weird science-fiction with hot dog fingers, but also an immigrant family drama with her in the center of it. It’s also a bit of an “it’s time” award for Yeoh, who we’ve been watching on the big screen since the 1980s.
Caroline
Should win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Will win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
I think any combination of Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh is a good answer here, and the winner will absolutely be one of those two. I went back and forth as to who I think should win the Oscar because both performances are absolutely stellar, but I’m going with Yeoh.
Cory
Should win: Cate Blanchett, Tár
Will win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Blanchett gave what may be her career-defining performance in Tár, and I’d love to see her net that third Oscar to cement her status as an all-time talent (not that she isn’t already). Although, Yeoh might have enough goodwill and momentum for the more widely loved film.
Best Actor
Mitchell
Should win: Austin Butler, Elvis
Will win: Austin Butler, Elvis
This is one of the most contested Oscar races this year. Brendan Fraser, Colin Farrell and Austin Butler have all taken home hardware for their performances this awards season. I’m taking Butler here because he truly transformed into The King in Baz Luhrman’s film and the Academy seems to like it when actors do that sort of thing. That’s not to say that Farell and Fraser weren’t great, but Butler really broke out and shined in Elvis.
Caroline
Should win: Austin Butler, Elvis
Will win: Austin Butler, Elvis
THE EASIEST PICK OF THE ENTIRE EVENING. In total transparency, I did not like Elvis. At all. But oh my goodness Austin Butler is absolutely fantastic as the titular subject. He’s so entrenched in the role, he literally talks like Elvis now. It’s just a shame they couldn’t have used his skill for a better biopic of The King.
Cory
Should win: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Will win: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
While Butler certainly is a very possible winner on Sunday night, my head and my heart say it’ll go to Fraser. His comeback role for the ages is one of the most affecting performances of the decade so far, and it just feels like he’s building up all the momentum down the stretch to take the Oscar home. It’s a coin flip between the two, but I’ll take Fraser.
Best Director
Mitchell
Should win: Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Will win: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
I loved The Fabelmans, but The Banshees of Inisherin was just super impressive to me. It’s both dark and delightful, and the elevator pitch for the film — two friends on an island in 1923 Ireland have a break-up — seems so simple, but executed at an incredibly high level. And it’s much more beautiful-looking than it really needs to be with those awesome sweeping shots of the Irish coast and the island’s countryside. Spielberg will likely win because, well, he’s Spielberg. But don’t rule McDonagh out; the Academy likes him.
Caroline
Should win: Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Will win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
My should win absolutely will not win because somehow they didn’t think Kosinski deserved a nomination despite directing a movie that featured multiple jets flying around most of the time. Kosinski had to direct from the ground while managing a crew of mini-directors that were sitting in the back of an F/A-18 with a pilot in the front seat. It’s fine, I’m fine. Since he can’t win, it should go to the very wonderful duo of Daniels for Everything Everywhere All At Once.
Cory
Should win: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Will win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
One of the greatest directors of all time turning in one of his career-best works should be an easy call, but the Daniels just have the hot hand right now with their film. Spielberg is my pick every day of the week for the five that were nominated, but I do think Everything Everywhere All at Once sweeps as much as it can.
Best Picture
Mitchell
Should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
It’s got to be this, right? This film has now won a Best Picture or equivalent award at: The Critics’ Choice Awards, the Gotham Independent Film Awards, the Independent Spirit Awards, the Saturn Awards, and the Screen Actors Guild Awards. It would be a shock to not see it win Best Picture at the Oscars.
Caroline
Should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Not only is it the heavy favorite, it’s the deserved winner this year. Top Gun: Maverick was my personal favorite of the year, but it’s not the typical Best Picture type movie. Everything Everywhere All at Once is such a beautiful and unique story that hits every emotional note, and it has a stellar cast to boot.
Cory
Should win: The Fabelmans
Will win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Again, The Fabelmans is the kind of landmark work from an all-time auteur that should take him an award such as this. However, it’s hard to bet against the zany, emotionally resonant Everything Everywhere All At Once. Don’t count out All Quiet on the Western Front, though. It’s a more standard Best Picture winner, it took home the BAFTA and it seems to be very popular in the industry.
