When the fifth inning began in San Diego on that Saturday night in late June, everyone’s mind was still on Bryce Harper and how much damage a wayward 97-mph fastball had wrought upon his left hand.
Did Harper break his thumb? ... Would he play again this season? ... How would the Phillies survive without him?
J.T. Realmuto’s leadoff home run seemed rather inconsequential by comparison. In hindsight, it represented a pivot point in the Phillies’ season. Not only did it break a scoreless tie in a 4-2 victory over the Padres, it also began a 33-20 stretch without Harper. And it provided the first hint to the question we are posing here today:
Who is the Phillies MVP?
A year ago, the answer was obvious. Harper was the best and most valuable player across the entirety of the National League. He was back among the top MVP contenders through three months this season, too, a solid start that was punctuated by his game-tying, eighth-inning grand slam June 5 against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Then his thumb met Blake Snell’s heater.
How do you replace the reigning MVP? You don’t. You merely hope others step forward in his absence. It’s clear now, with the Phillies leading the Milwaukee Brewers by 3½ games (4½, including the tiebreaker) for the last NL playoff spot with 22 games remaining, that many others stepped forward.
None of the Phillies’ MVP candidates will win the leaguewide award. St. Louis’ Paul Goldschmidt is the heavy favorite. The top five likely will be populated by some combination of Manny Machado, Mookie Betts, Nolan Arenado, Freddie Freeman, Francisco Lindor, and Trea Turner.
It could be argued that interim manager Rob Thomson is the Phillies’ MVP. He took over for Joe Girardi after a 22-29 start, projected calm in the face of Harper’s injury, and steered the Phillies to the third-best record in the NL since June 3 (56-33).
But the “P” in MVP stands for “player,” so here’s our list of the top five most valuable Phillies players:
J.T. Realmuto
If not for the state of Harper’s thumb, the disappearance of Realmuto’s power would have been the Phillies’ chief concern when that fifth inning began on June 25.
To that point, Realmuto was batting .236 with four homers and a .352 slugging percentage in 262 plate appearances. Given his age (31), position (catcher), workload (an average of 120 starts over the last six full seasons), and contract ($23.875 million annually through 2025), eyebrows were already being raised across the league about whether the three-time All-Star was in the midst of a decline.
But since Harper’s injury, beginning with the homer against Snell, Realmuto is batting .323 with 12 homers and a .600 slugging percentage in his last 221 plate appearances.
And the full measure of his value is impact on the bases, on both sides of the ball.
Realmuto is 17-for-17 in steal attempts and would be only the third player since 1951 to hit at least 15 homers and steal 15 bases without getting caught, joining Chase Utley in 2009 and Kevin McReynolds in 1988. Realmuto has advanced more than one base on a single or two bases on a double 54% of the time. The league average is 42%. He also has thrown out 42% of base stealers. The league average is 24.8%.
“J.T.’s been playing fantastic baseball in every facet of the game,” Thomson said. “In my mind, I think he should be maybe in the MVP conversation. That’s how important he is to our ballclub.”
There’s no denying Realmuto is, at a minimum, the Phillies’ MVP.
Kyle Schwarber
The Phillies went 19-8 in June, a turnaround that started at the top. And we aren’t talking about the managerial change.
Schwarber moved back into the leadoff spot after starting the season in a .185/.311/.410 funk, and the Phillies’ lineup functioned with assembly line-quality efficiency. In 27 games, he reached base at a .385 clip. When he wasn’t grinding pitchers’ arms into sawdust, he was taking them deep. He hit 12 homers and slugged .680 in 103 June at-bats.
In thinking about the Phillies’ rise, it’s difficult to imagine them ever getting off the ground without Schwarber.
Seranthony Domínguez
This is probably a reaction to how horrendous the bullpen was without Domínguez in 2020 and 2021. But it’s also a testament to how well he has pitched in his first season back from Tommy John elbow surgery.
Domínguez’s average fastball velocity has trended upward every month, from 96.3 mph in April to 97.4 in May, 98.0 in June, 98.2 in July, and 98.7 in August. He has a 1.60 ERA and 32% strikeout rate, fifth and 11th, respectively, among NL relievers.
Most importantly, he has 14 holds, nine saves, and only one blown save, bringing both order and dominance to the late innings. The Phillies had neither for most of the last three seasons. So, there’s no understating Domínguez’s value to the bullpen now that he’s back from a three-week absence with triceps tendinitis.
“He’s been huge for us all year, so it’s definitely a welcome sight to get him back,” reliever Connor Brogdon said. “He’s really nasty. We definitely need him.”
Aaron Nola
Nola’s philosophy on pitching can be summed up in one sentence: “If I’m healthy,” he said last week, “I’ve got a chance to help the team out as best as I can.”
There isn’t a pitcher in baseball who has been healthier than Nola, who leads the majors in starts since 2018. Once again, he has taken the ball as much as anyone, ranking third in innings (179⅓) behind only the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara (196⅔) and the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas (181⅓). While fellow Phillies starters Zach Eflin, Ranger Suárez, and Zack Wheeler have taken turns on the injured list, Nola has been the constant.
Nola has also been consistent. In 16 of his 28 starts, he has gone at least six innings and allowed no more than three earned runs. He has a 3.31 ERA overall. Somehow, the Phillies are only 13-15 in Nola’s starts, but almost always, they have a chance.
Rhys Hoskins
Hoskins is aware of the talk-radio criticism — “He’s too streaky at the plate!” — and concedes it has been true over the years.
But he’s also batting .272/.363/.518 with 21 homers since Memorial Day. The only players who have gone deep more often during that span: Aaron Judge, Schwarber, Goldschmidt, Austin Riley, Shohei Ohtani, and Matt Olson.
As the No. 2 hitter behind Schwarber, Hoskins helped set a tone for the offense by seeing a lot of pitches. Nobody has seen more than Hoskins this season (2,559).
“I know it’s looked a little up and down throughout the years, or at least within each season,” Hoskins said. “But if you can stand back and look at it from a bird’s-eye [view], to be able to provide a power bat in a lineup is something that I take pride in.”
