The National Soybean Index (national average cash price) posted its lowest monthly settlement in over four years at the end of October 2024.
All while demand, both exports and domestic crush, was strong through 2024-2025 Q1.
This tells us supplies were more than enough to offset demand, putting the spotlight on what could happen over the months and years to come.
The fun thing about getting older is you often get a good idea, one that gets you excited about writing your next column, then find out you wrote the piece a year ago, title and all. As I sat down to write this pre-US Thanksgiving Holiday piece my idea was to talk about US soybean supply and demand, focusing on the demand side given supply remains a mystery, generally speaking. Keep in mind actual supply is always a mystery, which is why USDA’s estimates are nothing but glamorized guesses. I’m reminded of the time I was invited to a USDA/NASS conference in St. Louis a number of years ago. Oddly enough, some of the attendees took umbrage at some of the comments I made during my presentation. Over lunch, one came up to me and said, “The estimates may be guesses, but at least they are educated guesses”. For some reason he thought that made it sound better.
