More than 100 people have been killed and scores wounded in Russia’s worst terror attack in years.
Who is responsible for the attack?
Islamic State (IS) has claimed responsibility for the attack, praising the “Islamic fighters” who carried it out. Many commentators and US officials have pointed to the IS affiliate called Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) as prime suspect – though so far there is no evidence that this is the case.
ISKP is a branch of Islamic State in Afghanistan. The name comes from that given to a region by some local Islamic rulers and so explicitly rejects modern national frontiers while evoking what its members consider the lost glory and power of Muslim empires.
It was formed at the peak of the expansion of IS in 2015 when the Iraq- and Syria-based group was trying to expand by building a network of affiliates through the Middle East, the Maghreb, west Asia and other parts of Africa. These efforts brought mixed results. However, hundreds of disillusioned Taliban fighters and some from factions in Pakistan were attracted by the extremism and resources of IS. These formed the nucleus of ISKP – and the group remains linked to IS to this day.
Has ISKP always attacked this kind of international target?
No, which is why it is important that ISKP have not themselves claimed responsibility for the attack in Moscow. This has come from IS central communications channels, not their own.
Also, ISKP has been mainly focused on a local campaign until relatively recently. It has launched hundreds of attacks on both civilian targets and security forces, including western forces, in Afghanistan. Two attacks in 2020 targeted a Kabul maternity ward and Kabul University. Others have hit mosques and ethnic or religious minorities in Afghanistan.
The group was also responsible for a hugely destructive attack on Kabul’s international airport in 2021 that killed 13 US troops and more than 150 civilians during the chaotic US evacuation from the country. This was an international target but still in Afghanistan.
But is ISKP striking international targets now?
To an extent. The group has hit targets in Tajikistan and Pakistan, neighbours of Afghanistan, and a hotel in Afghanistan favoured by Chinese nationals. Earlier this year, the US intercepted communications confirming the group had carried out twin bombings in Iran that killed nearly 100 people – though ISKP did not claim responsibility.
Earlier this month, the most senior US general in the Middle East said ISKP could attack US and western interests outside Afghanistan “in as little as six months and with little to no warning”.
Why might ISKP launch this kind of attack?
Over recent decades, lots of extremist Islamist factions have moved their focus from purely local targets to international ones. Reasons can vary from group to group. Sometimes a new leader brings a personal agenda, other times launching long-range international attacks is seen as a way to attract new recruits, win new resources from sponsors or mobilise followers otherwise disillusioned by local failures. They are also often a way to distinguish one group from competitors – in the case of ISKP, the Taliban, who have always eschewed such a strategy – and al-Qaida, which pioneered the strategy but has had a local focus since 2011.
It is entirely possible too that ISKP is acting on direct orders from IS leaders. Despite the collapse of the IS caliphate in Syria and Iraq, there are still ties between ISKP and senior figures there. In 2022, a UN report drawing on intelligence from member states said ISKP was a recipient of funds from the leadership “through trusted cash couriers” and there is no reason why orders should not be sent too.
IS is still apparently seeking opportunities for such strikes. A network planning to attack a concert hall in Brussels that was recently broken up by French and Belgian police were reportedly at least inspired by IS. But this also raises the possibility that a different IS affiliate or faction was responsible or even a semi-autonomous group inspired by IS.
Why would ISKP or IS leaders target Russia at all?
IS leaders, like many Islamic militants, are mindful of Russian support for the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and see Moscow as part of the broader coalition of Christian or western forces against Islam. This is a key point made by IS propaganda from Pakistan to Nigeria.
In September 2022, ISKP militants claimed responsibility for a deadly suicide bombing at the Russian embassy in Kabul and some experts say the group has opposed the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, in recent years. Michael Kugelman, of the Washington-based Wilson Center, said ISKP “sees Russia as being complicit in activities that regularly oppress Muslims” and counts as members a number of central Asian militants with their own grievances against Moscow.
ISKP leaders may also see Russia, along with China and others, as important to the continued rule of the Taliban and are seeking to undermine them. An attack in Moscow would thus combine local and more global agendas.
