England take on Panama tonight looking to win their group and, in theory, earn an easier route to the World Cup final.
The Three Lions have put themselves in a pole position to top Group L after beginning their World Cup campaign with a 4-2 win over Croatia, followed by a drab 0-0 draw with Ghana.
The result in Boston on Tuesday was not too damaging as Croatia’s win over Panama hours later means England can finish no lower than third in Group L, and four points is enough to be one of the best third-placed teams.
To this date, the 1966 final remains England’s only World Cup final appearance, and Tuchel will hope his side can remain on track to earn a second gold star on their shirts come next month.
Who will England play in World Cup last-32?
FIFA’s decision to prioritise the head-to-head record over goal difference means England are heavy favourites to win Group L. That will be confirmed as long as they beat Panama and at least match Ghana’s result against Croatia.
Due to Tuesday evening’s goalless draw, England can still be pipped to top spot by Ghana by goal difference, so a big margin of victory over Panama is required just to be on the safe side.
If England do win Group L, they will face one of the best third-placed teams from Group E/H/I/J/K.
At one stage this week, Portugal were down as England’s opponents - evoking memories from the infamous quarter-final showdown 20 years ago in Gelsenkirchen.
Though after Cristiano Ronaldo inspired Portugal to a 5-0 win over Uzbekistan on Tuesday evening, the Euro 2016 champions are now second in Group K and have a far superior goal difference to DR Congo.
As things stand, England are most likely to face Senegal, with DR Congo, also a likely opponent.
Algeria is the outside contender.
Should Tuchel’s side drop a place and finish as runners-up in Group L, their reward will be a last-32 showdown against the runners-up from Group K, which is currently predicted to be Colombia. But, yes, again, Portugal are firmly an option in this scenario.
In the unlikely scenario that England qualify as one of the best third-placed teams, they will face the winners of Group K, which will also be Colombia or Portugal.
