With Boris Johnson facing a confidence vote tonight of Tory MPs, he could be deposed as party leader within hours.
His removal from office would likely trigger a leadership contest, pitting ambitious MPs against each other for the prize of becoming Prime Minister.
Johnson has no obvious successor and a contest would inevitably lead to a clash of personalities and a debate on the ideological direction of the Tories.
Earlier today the 1992 Committee chairman Sir Graham Brady revealed that Johnson was told last night about the vote.
He said: "I notified the Prime Minister yesterday that the threshold had been reached.
"We agreed the timetable for the confidence vote to take place and he shared my view - which is also in line with the rules that we have in place - that that vote should happen as soon as could reasonably take place and that would be today."
He refused to confirm how many letters had been received or when the threshold had been passed but said "it is slightly complicated because some colleagues had asked specifically that it should not be until the end of the Jubilee celebrations".
Those tipped to stand in the event of a contest include.
Liz Truss
The Foreign Secretary’s political stock has risen during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and she would be hard to beat in a vote of party members.
Truss, who attended a primary school in Paisley, is also on the economic Right of her party and has championed tax cuts, a cause close to the hearts of many Conservative MPs.
One potential difficulty for her in a Tory leadership contest is she voted Remain in the 2016 EU referendum. She also used to be a Liberal Democrat, but this was a long time ago.
Ben Wallace
The Defence Secretary would be a formidable candidate in any contest - if he was interested in the job.
He had the highest “net satisfaction rating” of any Cabinet Minister in a recent survey of party members by the Conservative Home website.
A Johnson ally, Wallace is plain speaking, unflashy and has not been damaged by the partygate scandal.
The ex-soldier would also be the first former MSP to become Tory leader. Wallace represented North East Scotland between 1999 and 2003.
Rishi Sunak
The chancellor would have stood an excellent chance of succeeding Johnson last year, but recent events have damaged him.
His partygate fine was a blemish and the controversy over his wife’s tax status will unlikely to have enhanced his reputation. Tory MPs are also angry with his national insurance hike.
With the Conservatives’ focused on holding their Red Wall seats, electing a multi-millionaire leader could be problematic.
However, he remains a Cabinet big beast and would attract support for any leadership bid.
Jeremy Hunt
The former Health Secretary stood for the leadership in 2019, but was soundly beaten by Johnson.
His appeal would be as a ‘clean hands’ candidate who is not sullied by membership of the Cabinet. He would contrast his professionalism with the chaos of the Johnson era.
But Hunt has a reputation for being wooden and, with personality a key issue in modern politics, he may not be seen as the candidate to reconnect with lost voters.
Penny Mordaunt
Every leadership contest has a dark horse and the Trade Minister has been tipped as one to watch.
Mordaunt would be seen by Tory MPs as sound on Brexit - she campaigned vocally for Leave in 2016 - and could be viewed as the clean break needed by the Tories.
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