Dreams of a classic White Christmas are fading for millions of Americans this year, but for a select group of northern and high-elevation cities, snow on the ground on Christmas morning still looks firmly within reach. Forecasts heading into the final days before 25 December show a growing divide between cities likely to wake up to a wintry scene and major population centres expected to see bare pavements instead.
A White Christmas is officially defined as at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. While fresh snowfall helps, existing snow cover is often the deciding factor, and that is where geography is proving decisive this year.
Cities Still Favoured for a White Christmas
Several US cities enter Christmas week with strong odds thanks to persistent cold temperatures and established snow-pack. According to 1991-2020 data released by NOAA, in the Upper Midwest, Minneapolis remains one of the most reliable urban locations for snow on Christmas Day, supported by below-freezing temperatures and recent snowfall. Nearby Fargo also stands out, with long-term averages and current conditions both pointing towards snow cover lasting through the holiday.
In the Mountain West, elevation is doing much of the work. Denver retains a realistic chance of a White Christmas, particularly in outlying and higher neighbourhoods, even if the city centre sees patchier coverage. Further north, cities in Montana and Wyoming continue to benefit from colder air locked in across the Rockies.
Northern Regions Holding the Advantage
Beyond individual cities, entire regions remain well positioned. The Upper Midwest and Northern Plains are seeing fewer mid-winter thaws than much of the country, allowing snow to accumulate and persist. Northern New England, including parts of Maine and Vermont, also continues to show favourable conditions, particularly away from the immediate coast.
Lake-effect snow remains a wildcard around the Great Lakes, capable of boosting snow cover quickly in localised areas. However, even in these regions, forecasters note that timing matters, with snow that falls too early at risk of melting if temperatures briefly rise.
Major Hubs Likely to Miss Out
In contrast, several of the country's most watched cities are heading towards a snow-free Christmas morning. New York City is forecast to remain too mild to sustain snow cover, despite occasional winter storms earlier in the season. While flurries are not impossible, the chances of measurable snow on the ground remain low.
Chicago, often associated with harsh winters, is also facing disappointing odds this year, with temperatures hovering near or above freezing during the crucial period. Further south, as reported by The New York Times, Washington is expected to see rain rather than snow, continuing a long-term trend away from White Christmas conditions.
Why Snowfall Alone Is Not Enough
Meteorologists stress that a Christmas Eve snowfall does not automatically guarantee a White Christmas. Warm air intrusions, rain, or daytime melting can quickly erode shallow snow cover. This year, marginal temperatures across large parts of the eastern and central US mean that even areas that see snow beforehand may struggle to keep it through Christmas morning.
How This Year Compares Historically
Historically, only about a third of the contiguous United States experiences snow on the ground on Christmas Day, with probabilities heavily skewed towards northern and mountainous regions. Long-term records show that many major cities now see White Christmases less frequently than in past decades, increasing public interest and search traffic around annual forecasts.
What Forecasters Are Watching Next
In the final lead-up to Christmas, forecasters are monitoring temperature trends, overnight lows, and the durability of existing snow-pack. Small shifts in weather systems could still influence marginal cities, but for now, the line between snow-covered and snow-free Christmas mornings looks increasingly clear.
