The EU has made a historic decision to open accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova but a tense summit in Brussels has underscored the difficulties ahead for the bloc as it plans to let more members join.
What does the summit mean for Orbán?
For weeks, Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, insisted he would block opening talks with Kyiv, which required unanimous approval from the member states.
His veto threats dominated conversations in Brussels, as diplomats shook their heads and asked: what does he really want? And what do we do?
The European council president, Charles Michel, went to Budapest to try to bring the Hungarian leader on board. Emmanuel Macron, the French president, hosted Orbán in Paris. In a last-minute effort, Macron and the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, were among the senior leaders who sat down with the Hungarian leader.
In a move critics have described as a bribe, the European Commission unfroze about €10bn earmarked for Hungary, arguing the country had successfully completed judicial reforms.
What does the showdown with Orbán mean for the EU?
In the end, after hours of talks on Thursday, Orbán relented – walking out of the room while the other 26 leaders agreed to start negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, thus allowing for a unanimous decision.
Nevertheless, the days of uncertainty and diplomatic campaigning in the move to bring Hungary on board highlighted that, despite his high profile on the European stage, Orbán cuts a lonely figure.
“Orbán achieved what was to be expected. He got self-isolated, by his own choice,” said a senior EU diplomat.
That suggestion was only highlighted by Orbán’s decisions to block a €50bn EU aid package for Ukraine, hours after the accession talks had been agreed.
There is speculation that Orbán could be betting on a strong performance for the European far right in elections soon, biding his time for when more like-minded leaders may sit around the table.
The EU’s showdown with Orbán did, however, serve as a reminder of the tough road ahead for the EU as it prepares to enlarge.
The bloc is already grappling with how to address rule-of-law problems and foreign policy divergences in countries such as Hungary, and many leaders recognise that the EU would have to reform internally before expanding.
At the summit on Thursday, leaders also debated the EU’s budget as some member states resisted paying more into the bloc’s coffers – another reminder of the challenges if the EU accepts new members who could take up a significant chunk of the budget spend.
What does the summit mean for Ukraine?
While there is a recognition that the accession process could take years, in Kyiv the EU decision to open talks is seen as a gamechanger. “It means so much to Ukrainian people,” said one Ukrainian official. “We did everything to make it happen.”
That excitement may have been dampened later in the evening, as the news that the financial aid package had been blocked by Hungary.
Orbán had argued that Ukraine should not get such large amounts of money from the EU budget as it is not part of the bloc. However, other leaders have assured Kyiv they could channel aid to Ukraine outside the EU budget if Hungary maintains its blockade.
