What message does it send when you start trading your most valuable players in-season? The Carolina Panthers fired Matt Rhule on October 10, and then traded receiver Robby Anderson and running back Christian McCaffrey in rapid succession. Interim head coach Steve Wilks’ message to his team and the fanbase was clear — the Panthers are not tanking. That played out well for Wilks in Carolina’s 21-3 flummoxing of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, but that was as much or more about the Bucs falling off several cliffs as anything else.
In any event, several NFL teams are looking at their seasons, and their futures, as the November 1 trade deadline looms. Based on all available reliable rumor and innuendo, here are the most prominent players who have been named in trade talks, and whether or not their current teams should make moves — despite (or perhaps because of) the messages those moves will send.
Brian Burns, EDGE, Carolina Panthers: Yes
On Sunday, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that one NFL team offered the Carolina Panthers two future first-round picks for pass-rusher Brian Burns. But the Panthers, after trading receiver Robby Anderson to the Arizona Cardinals, and trading running back Christian McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers, are apparently not interesting in dealing any more of their best players.
Burns is a great player, of that there is no doubt. But as the 2023 NFL draft appears to be flush with edge talent, and the Panthers have needs all over the place? I’d at least listen to the offers were I Panthers general manager Scott Fitterer.
Right now, the Panthers are in line for a top-three pick in 2023, and that’s not likely to change before the season ends. So, if the Panthers were able to select, say, Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr., and could then double down with their quarterback of the future in the first round next year? Unless Burns has the ability to have a completely transcendent, Aaron Donald-level impact on that defense? The Panthers might be making a mistake in refusing to let Burns go. Because then, you’re swapping out one proven top-tier NFL pass-rusher for a high-potential NFL pass-rusher, and the quarterback you desperately need.
There’s also the fact that Burns will go into the final year of his rookie deal in 2023, and he’s on pace to sign a monster extension. This is not a team that is estimated to be in great salary cap space in 2023. When you have the unenviable combination of multiple team needs, and not a lot of room to work with, you need to think outside the box.
Shaq Thompson, LB, Carolina Panthers: Yes
One reason the Panthers are in salary cap purgatory (at least as it stands now) is the four-year, $54.16 million contract extension they game Thompson in 2019. The bill for that really comes due next year in the final year of the deal — Thompson’s 2023 cap hit is $24,463,334, and his dead money is $11,276,334. There are all kinds of ways to mitigate that, but the other question is, what does Thompson bring to the field? He’s an above-average player, but it could easily be argued that Frankie Luvu is the team’s best and most impactful linebacker. Luvu is in the first season of the two-year, $9 million contract he signed this offseason, which is looking like one of the NFL’s best bargains right now.
Were another team interested in taking on all or most of Thompson’s remaining financial responsibilities, the Panthers should jump all over it — getting a mid-round pick or two would be gravy in this case.
Derrick Brown, DI, Carolina Panthers: Absolutely not
Of all the Panthers’ reportedly tradeable assets, Brown is the one the team should not consider parting with. Selected with the seventh overall pick in the 2020 draft out of Auburn, Brown is halfway through his rookie deal, and when the Panthers pick up his fifth-year option, he’ll be on that deal through the 2024 season.
At 6-foot-5 and 320 pounds, Brown is a good pressure defender, but where he really stands out is as a run-stopper. Per Sports Info Solutions, the Panthers gave up 4.8 yards per carry through the first six weeks of the season when Burns was off the field, and 4.1 yards per carry when he was part of the defense. Yards after contact per carry dropped from 2.9 to 2.5 with Brown, blown run tackle rate dropped from 8.9% to 5.7%, and rushing touchdown rate plummeted from 11.1% to 1.9.
Brown is among the best at his position in the NFL, and given his current contract status, he’s also one of the most valuable. When you’re doing a rebuild, this is the kind of player you build around.
Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants: No
The Giants selected Barkley with the second overall pick in the 2018 draft, and former general manager Dave Gettleman looked half-smart for a minute when he went against the grain and seemed to overvalue a position that isn’t generally a marquee position on which to spend in the modern NFL. Barkley led the league in yards from scrimmage with 2,028 in his rookie season, but since then, between injuries and bad coaching, he’s not been nearly as effective.
Until this season.
Now, under head coach and offensive shot-caller Brian Daboll, a healthy Barkley has found new life. He has been as much of the epicenter of that offense as anybody, including quarterback Daniel Jones. At the end of Week 7. Barkley once again led the league in yards from scrimmage with 906, and as his team stands at 6-1, why upset the cart? Unless the Giants were able to pry away a 2023 first-round pick for Barkley’s services, which is unlikely. Barkley is in the last year of his rookie contract, and while his injury history doesn’t really open things up to a mammoth free-agent deal, the Giants are not any different from top-level teams fishing for running backs — except that they now have a great one.
Otherwise, the Giants should stay the course, and see just how much Daboll can get out of Barkley. Early returns have been massively impressive.
Elijah Moore, WR, New York Jets: No
The Jets selected Moore in the second round of the 2021 draft out of Mississippi, and it didn’t take long for Moore to become unhappy with his environs. And he’s not the only one. Denzel Mims, selected in the second round of the 2020 draft, has, like Moore, requested a trade because he’s unhappy with his role in Mike LaFleur’s offense. Moore had just 29 targets and 16 catches after the Jets’ first five games of the season, and after the Jets’ Week 6 win over the Packers, a game in which he wasn’t targeted once, Moore Tweeted this (per ESPN’s Rich Cimini):
If I say what I really wanna say … I’ll be the selfish guy… we winning. Grateful! Huge blessing! All I ever wanted. Butter sweet for me em but I’ll be solid. So I’ll just stay quiet Just know I don’t understand either.
The Jets have refused Moore’s trade request. Moore was not active for the Jets’ Sunday win over the Broncos, and at this point, everybody is trying to work things out. The Jets could use his ability to get open downfield, especially against zone coverage, and Moore could be a real weapon if used correctly. If no real solution can be found this week, perhaps the Jets are best off trading Moore, but I tend to think that there are better ways to go here. Moore presents a favorable targets on quick passes like this slant against the Bengals; he should be used more often on low-risk, high-volume targets. This is especially the case with the unfortunate news that running back Breece Hall will miss the rest of the 2022 season due to a torn ACL.
Bradley Chubb, EDGE, Denver Broncos: No
The Denver Broncos are in a place they certainly didn’t imagine this far into the 2022 NFL season. They thought they were only a quarterback away from a Super Bowl run, and so far, that quarterback (Russell Wilson) has given them nothing to believe in regarding that potential.
So, the question becomes, are the Broncos in fire-sale mode, or are they thinking they’re contenders? Odds are, everybody in the building thinks that Wilson will get past his performance issues sooner than later, and as the Broncos are capable of putting a top-level defense on the field, that’s where the real value lies.
Multiple reports indicate that the Broncos have received calls regarding edge-rusher Bradley Chubb, which would make sense. Chubb is a top-10 pass-rusher, and if you’re a legitimate playoff team as things stand, you want as many of those guys as you can get. The fifth overall pick in the 2018 draft, Chubb is in the final year of his rookie contract, and like the aforementioned Brian Burns, he’s in line for a monster second contract. But the Broncos will have the scratch to make that comfortable, and as badly as their offense is going right now, the last thing you want to do is to frack up one of the NFL’s best defenses.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos: Yes
The Broncos took Jeudy with the 15th overall pick out of Alabama in the 2020 draft, and after a solid rookie season, Jeudy struggled with injuries in 2021, and like everyone else catching passes from Russell Wilson in 2022, he’s struggled with that. There’s no clear path to the Broncos’ offense improving with Wilson as the quarterback; with Wilson’s hamstring injury, there’s no clear path to his return to the field. This season, Jeudy has just 24 catches on 47 targets for 386 yards and two touchdowns; not exactly the numbers you would like to see from a receiver with Jeudy’s athletic potential.
Given Jeudy’s ability to win on intermediate and deep routes, and his ability to create after the catch, it’s entirely possible that the Broncos could get a first-round pick in return from a team in contention that’s short of elite receiver talent.
The Broncos threw a lot of high picks at the Seahawks for Wilson’s services, and given the choice between Chubb and Jeudy among players who could return at least one impact pick to the front office, Jeudy is the smarter play. When you make a franchise-defining decision like the Wilson trade, and it turns out this badly, it might be time to scramble.
Chase Claypool, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers: Yes
The Steelers selected Claypool in the second round of the 2020 draft out of Notre Dame far more for his athletic attributes than any level of understanding of the nuances of the position. After an 11-touchdown rookie season, Claypool has struggled to maintain any semblance of that production — to the contrary, he appeared to have regressed as a receiver, and it’s not clear what Mike Tomlin and his staff can do about it at this point. There’s still too much stuff like this, where Claypool defers to the guy covering him (in this case, Dolphins cornerback Justin Bethel), and the results are less than optimal.
Perhaps the Steelers still believe that they can get the most out of Claypool, but if a team comes calling with the right capital because they’re betwittered by his upside, the team should absolutely listen.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Houston Texans: Yes
It should come as no surprise that Cooks is rumored to be on the trade block — through his career, he’s been traded from the Saints to the Patriots, from the Patriots to the Rams, and from the Rams to the Texans. And he’s only 29 years old! This season, Cooks has just 28 catches on 47 targets for 281 yards and a touchdown in Houston’s iffy passing game, but he can still get it done in the right offense. As he showed on this 23-yard catch against the Broncos’ excellent defense in Week 2, Cooks can get open on verts and posts and overs, and he’s got no problem heading right into the teeth of coverage.
The one holdup might be Cooks’ contract — he signed a two-year extension with the Texans in April that gave him $36 million guaranteed, and he’s got a $26,610,370 cap hit in 2023 with $34,220,741 in dead money. Moving on after the 2023 season is much easier, but that’s a lot to take on in the short term. Perhaps this is a case for the Texans where they get some cap relief and limited draft capital in return.
William Jackson III, CB, Washington Commanders: Absolutely
There are few more frustrating examples of a good player in the wrong scheme than Jackson over the last two seasons. When the then-Washington Football Team signed Jackson, the former Cincinnati Bengals star, to a three-year, $42 million deal before the 2021 season, it looked for all the world that Washington got a CB1 for CB2 money, which is always good… as long as you understand what the player does well.
This has not been the case for Jackson, who established himself with the Bengals as one of the best press cornerbacks in the NFL. The Football Team, and then the Commanders, preferred to put him in off-coverage more often, and the results have been… well, predictable. Jackson hasn’t played since Week 5, but he’s been one of the worst players at his position in the NFL from a statistical standpoint. He’s allowed 16 catches on 19 targets for 219 yards, 60 yards after the catch, no interceptions, two touchdowns, and an opponent passer rating of 149.8.
Jackson has reportedly alternated between desperately seeking a trade to a team that will put him in coverages that allow him to be the great player he once was, and insisting that he doesn’t want to be traded at all. It seems that the best thing to do in this case is for the Washington football franchise to either move on from Jackson. or put together a defensive playbook that better represents the talent on the roster.
We’re betting that moving Jackson to a press-heavy team will be far more possible than the other option.
