With the youngest offense in the NFL last year and a first-year starting quarterback in Jordan Love, the Green Bay Packers endured some growing pains. They rounded into form late, however, winning eight of their final 12, including a rout of the Dallas Cowboys in the playoffs. While most of that group returns intact, the team made changes in the backfield.
Gone is running back Aaron Jones (Minnesota Vikings), who was released after refusing a pay cut. For as good as Jones has been, durability was an issue. The team hopes free-agent signee RB Josh Jacobs will be sturdier in the RB1 role. Although he had mediocre production a season ago, he’s just one year removed from a 2,053-yard, 12-touchdown overall performance that earned him first-team All-Pro honors.
Even with the switch from Jones to the younger Jacobs, don’t expect head coach Matt LaFleur to alter his approach when it comes to utilizing two backs. In five seasons on the job, MLF has given his lead back an average of 203 carries to 145 for RB2 — a 58/42 split in terms of percentage. Perhaps that skews a little heavier to Jacobs’ side, but there should still be plenty of work for whoever emerges as the No. 2 option.
AJ Dillon
In terms of workload, it was Dillon that logged the most carries last year (178 to Jones’ 142). After not missing a game in 2021 or 2022, the bruising back suffered a broken thumb that cost him a game and then a Week 17 stinger that kept him out of the finale and both playoff tilts. Many thought he wouldn’t be back in Green Bay, but Dillon agreed to a rare four-year qualifying offer to return. That contract carries a modest $1.125 million cap hit if he’s cut, so Dillon isn’t guaranteed a roster spot.
While that works against him, he has several positives. Dillon has spent four years in LaFleur’s system, is capable as a blocker/receiver in passing situations, and rarely puts the ball on the ground. Add in durability and power, and Dillon has a good chance to stick.
MarShawn Lloyd
Selected in the third round of this year’s draft, Lloyd is a load at 5-foot-9, 220 pounds. He has a mix of speed, patience, and power that, at least on paper, make him a nice fit for what Green Bay likes to do in the running game. Although he wasn’t heavily utilized in the passing game at USC, Lloyd has good hands and could do some damage as a receiver out of the backfield.
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The rookie will need to prove he can handle the blocking aspects of the role, something Jones was exceptional at, but he brings an element of speed and athleticism — Lloyd averaged 7.1 yards per carry for the Trojans last year — that Dillon simply cannot match. He’s locked into a spot on the 53-man roster and should probably be considered the favorite to emerge as the No. 2 back in 2024.
Emanuel Wilson
Although he’d be a very long shot to take the No. 2 job, don’t dismiss the possibility of Wilson beating out Dillon for a spot on the 53-man roster. The Packers carried Wilson on their roster all year after he made the club as an undrafted free agent, averaging 6.1 yards per carry in limited burn. With Dillon hurt, Wilson was RB2 in the playoffs, gaining 47 yards on 13 touches. He has some juice.
Fantasy football outlook
This is a battle that will gain more clarity in camp, but the early read is that the job is Lloyd’s to lose. He projects as an ideal complement to Jacobs — someone who can make a difference in limited touches with their burst and elusiveness. What we don’t know is how quickly he’ll adapt to the pro game and how soon the team will feel comfortable with him picking up the blitz in front of Love.
Even if Dillon breaks camp as RB2, his season-long value looks tenuous, at best. His numbers have gone down, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry last year, and he hasn’t been nearly as effective on short-yardage situations as you’d expect.
Lloyd could attract attention as an RB5 for 2024, and he’s likely the wiser handcuff to Jacobs. Here’s a nugget for those in keeper leagues: Jacobs’ contract is essentially a series of one-year deals, so if Lloyd excels as a rookie, he could be the lead back in Green Bay next year.
