Donald Trump’s legal headaches have drawn one step closer to colliding with the Republican nomination calendar.
On Monday, the US district judge Tanya Chutkan set 4 March 2024 as the first day of jury selection in the Washington DC election interference and civil rights case. Super Tuesday is one day later. Republican nominating contests in California, Texas, and 14 other jurisdictions will be immediately set against the backdrop of the 45th president’s woes. In the weeks that follow, Ohio, Illinois and New York will be hosting primaries of their own.
Talk about split-screen moments. Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley will receive a non-stop barrage of questions about the former guy as they struggle to unfurl their own separate closing messages, assuming they’re still in the hunt.
Just hours before the hearing, Trump unloaded on the prosecutors, branding them “fascist thugs”. The contrast between his professed commitment to law and order and his relentless attack on law enforcement grows starker as the possibility of his own conviction is no longer theoretical.
Trump’s own lawyers made sure to bring their client’s grievances into court. Twice during their presentation, the judge directed them to “take the temperature down”. Even without TV cameras present, the former guy must be reminded of his legal team’s commitment to his cause.
Like Commodus, the deranged Roman emperor, Trump’s wrath needs to be sated. Loyalty is part of survival.
In setting an early March date, the court made clear that it was unimpressed by Trump’s efforts to delay. As the hearing began, the judge indicated that his political calendar would not be a factor. Likewise, Judge Chutkan rejected the defendant’s contention that the case posed novel difficulties. “Why is this case complex, other than the historic aspect of it?” she asked.
Trump’s team probably shot their client in the foot when they referred to the government’s case as “a regurgitation of the [January 6th] committee report”. In that moment, they tacitly acknowledged that the DC indictment did not cover new ground. Trial preparation was manageable. Key information and documents were already out there.
Beyond that, prosecutors pointed to Trump’s daily social media dumps as potentially tainting the jury pool. His need to rile his own political base may have served to hasten his own trial. For the record, this would not be the first time that Trump’s impulses were self-injurious. In its ruling, the court advised that it was “watching carefully” for anything that might affect or “poison” the jury pool.
By the numbers, Trump has converted the blizzard of indictments into fundraising gold. His campaign raised $7m on the Fulton county booking late last week. His mugshot now graces coffee mugs and sweatshirts.
In that same spirit, since his March 2023 indictment in Manhattan on state charges, Trump has managed to lap the Republican field. DeSantis has lost whatever traction he had hoped for. He remains in retrograde as his likability quotient shrinks.
Yet little is unalloyed. Even as doubts grow about Joe Biden and his age, the Trump indictments have left three in five Americans believing that the one-time reality show host ought to be tried. In other words, outside of the Republican party, Democrats and independents refuse to buy that this is simply an endless witch-hunt. Where there is smoke, fire is frequently nearby.
Monday’s ruling by Judge Chutkan is also likely to cast a shadow over the other cases that Trump faces. In early October, the lawsuit against Trump and the Trump Organization is due to begin in Manhattan. When and what comes after that grows iffy.
The constitutional imperative of due process and a criminal defendant’s right to help prepare his own defense will probably cause delays in the other Trump trials presently set for next year.
For starters, don’t bet on the E Jean Carroll defamation case proceeding as scheduled in mid-January. Even if Trump doesn’t need to be there, his lawyers will seek to convince Judge Lewis Kaplan that a delay is required in favor of the proceedings in Washington.
Similarly, the Stormy Daniels hush-money case set for next spring in Manhattan is another candidate for delay. Already, Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney, has signaled his willingness to yield to the feds. In the hierarchy of public interest, it is the dog’s tail, hardly the main event.
The 20 May 2024 trial in the special counsel’s documents case, too, is likely to be re-set to sometime during the summer or fall of 2024 at the earliest. To what degree Aileen Cannon, the Trump-appointed trial judge, again defers to his wishes remains to be seen.
Last, when and where the charges brought by Fani Willis, the Fulton county prosecutor, will be heard is an open question. It is possible that they will ultimately be heard in federal court, not a Georgia state court. Already, Mark Meadows and others seek removal. With Trump joined by a posse of co-defendants, don’t count on a quick trial.
Rather, bet on Judge Chutkan and Washington DC hosting the Main Event. By extension, if he is acquitted there, expect Trump to be nominated by acclamation. And if convicted, he will still be the Republican presidential nominee. Either way, and for better or worse, he will make history.
Lloyd Green is an attorney in New York and served in the US Department of Justice from 1990 to 1992
