Where to Pick Upsets in Your Women’s NCAA Tournament Bracket

Since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1994, the Nos. 1, 2 and 3 seeds hold a combined 359–1 record in the opening round. | Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

In 1998 Stanford walked into the women’s NCAA tournament as the top overall seed and with a dark cloud overhead. All Pac-10 forward Vanessa Nygaard suffered her second torn ACL in the regular-season finale and four days later, forward Kristin Folkl, the Cardinal’s leading scorer, tore her ACL. By the time No. 16 Harvard arrived at Stanford’s doorstep, malaise seemed to have already set in.

Stanford would not be able to stop Allison Feaster—the nation’s leading scorer, and mother of current UConn freshman standout Sarah Strong. Feaster scored a game-high 35 points and led the Crimson to a 71–67 upset victory. Harvard’s win marked the first time a No. 1 seed lost in the tournament’s opening round.

In hindsight, the ingredients were present for an outlier performance. An injury-riddled No. 1 seed. A No. 16 seed coming off its third consecutive conference title and harboring a feeling of disrespect. A No. 16 seed with the top scorer in the country. It is the exception that proves the rule: When it comes to the women’s NCAA tournament, don’t go looking for giant slayers in the first round.

Women’s NCAA tournament round of 64 results since 1994. | Dan Falkenheim

Since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1994, the Nos. 1, 2 and 3 seeds hold a combined 359–1 record against their lower-ranked counterparts in the opening round. The games aren’t particularly close, either. Those three seeds average a 30-point margin of victory. The results aren’t kind to lower seeds:

• No. 1 vs. No. 16: 119–1 (99.2% win percentage)
• No. 2 vs. No. 15: 120–0 (100%)
• No. 3 vs. No. 14: 120–0 (100%)
• No. 4 vs. No. 13: 113–7 (94.2%)
• No. 5 vs. No. 12: 93–27 (77.5%)
• No. 6 vs. No. 11: 83–37 (69.2%)
• No. 7 vs. No. 10: 79–41 (65.8%)
• No. 8 vs. No. 9: 61–59 (50.8%)

It has been four years since a No. 4 seed lost (Arkansas vs. Wright State), but at least one No. 5 or No. 6 seed has lost in each of the last three tournaments. Across five brackets, SI’s experts picked the No. 11 or No. 12 teams to win four times: Murray State (twice), the winner of Iowa State and Princeton (once) and George Mason (once). Beyond that, two No. 7 and No. 8 seeds have lost in the 2019, ’22 and ’23 tournaments.

Still searching for big upsets? Look to the second round. The NCAA expanded the tournament field to 68 teams in 2022, and the Round of 32 matchups offer a touch more madness. No. 2 Ohio State fell to No. 7 Duke last year. One-seeds Indiana and Stanford both bowed out in the second round in ’23, marking the first Sweet 16 with only two No. 1 seeds since 1998. In 2022, No. 2 Iowa and No. 3 LSU fell to lower-seeded opponents.

Women’s NCAA tournament round of 32 results since 1994. | Dan Falkenheim

As for the other matchups?

• No. 1 vs. No. 8: 59–2 (96.7% win percentage)
• No. 1 vs. No. 9: 55–3 (94.8%)
• No. 2 vs. No. 7: 63–16 (79.7%)
• No. 2 vs. No. 10: 36–5 (87.8%)
• No. 3 vs. No. 6: 54–29 (65.1%)
• No. 3 vs. No. 11: 24–13 (64.9%)
• No. 4 vs. No. 5: 49–37 (57.0%)
• No. 4 vs. No. 12: 23–4 (85.2%)
• No. 5 vs. No. 13: 4–3 (57.1%)

There are more sizable upsets in the second round, but any remaining tournament magic tends to get snuffed out by the Elite Eight. Only 19 teams seeded sixth or lower have won in the Sweet 16 since 1994. Of those 19 teams, five have gone on to win in the Elite Eight. Just two of those wins have come in the last 20 years.

Welcome to the Big Dance, underdogs. Enjoy it while it lasts.

This article was originally published on www.si.com as Where to Pick Upsets in Your Women’s NCAA Tournament Bracket.