Where to next for the Australian economy, the RBA – and Philip Lowe?

Could Philip Lowe reasonably exit the Reserve Bank in better circumstances, with low unemployment, inflation down and a federal surplus? Photograph: Darren England/AAP

Philip Lowe may yet go down as one of the unluckiest central bank governors in Australian history or perhaps elsewhere.

Within a few days, the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, will decide on whether to extend the Reserve Bank governor’s seven-year contract when it concludes in mid-September. Few expect Lowe will get the nod to stay on.