As results in America’s crucial midterm elections continue to come in, an unexpectedly mixed picture has emerged.
Many observers across the political spectrum were expecting a surging Republican performance certain to take back the House and perhaps to capture the Senate. But instead Democrats have surpassed expectations, surprising even themselves. Congress may still fall to the Republicans – with the House very likely changing hands – while control of the Senate could remain up in the air until December when a runoff election in Georgia is decided.
Here are some key takeaways:
No red wave yet
A wave of Republican wins was expected by almost everyone in the last few weeks of the campaign. While the party performed strongly in Florida, across the rest of the US many candidates faltered. Mehmet Oz and Doug Mastriano lost in Pennsylvania for the Senate and governor’s mansion respectively – but JD Vance did win in Ohio’s Senate race.
House Republicans have trouble ahead
The current minority leader, Kevin McCarthy, declared victory before all the results were in. “When you awake,” he said, “we will be in the majority and Nancy Pelosi” – the Democratic speaker – “will be in the minority.” That seemed likely but some projections had the majority at one seat. Anything nearly so narrow will place McCarthy at the mercy of a fractured caucus, extremists including Marjorie Taylor Greene enjoying real power as they push an agenda of vengeance against Democrats, Joe Biden and even Anthony Fauci, the scientist who became the face of the US Covid response. McCarthy’s chances of becoming speaker also hang in the balance.
Trump v DeSantis
Donald Trump’s widely expected imminent announcement of a 2024 White House run now looks slightly less certain – or at least slightly less certain to clear opponents from his path. His main rival in the party, DeSantis, is emerging as strengthened after overperforming strongly. Only a few days ago, DeSantis looked in retreat in the face of a possible Trump run. Now he looks ascendant.
Democracy defenders fared well – but threat remains
Numerous high-profile Republican candidates who have backed Trump’s lie about electoral fraud lost their races. In Pennsylvania, Mastriano – one of the most extreme candidates – was roundly trounced. In Michigan, the conspiracy theorist Kristina Karamo lost her race to be secretary of state. But due to the fact that election denial has become so commonplace in the Republican party, it is likely to remain a strong force. The Washington Post estimated that at least 159 election-denying Republicans had won their races on Tuesday.
Florida no longer a swing state
The early Republican victories of Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio suggest Florida, previously a classic battleground, is increasingly becoming a red state. Florida twice helped elect Barack Obama to the White House and in 2020 had more registered Democrats than Republicans. But in part due to growing Republican support among Hispanic voters and an influx of retired new residents, it is increasingly shifting right.
Trump’s weak candidates
Many of the centrist candidates fielded by Republican leaders lost out in the primaries to Trump-backed candidates, only to lose out against their Democratic opponents. In the Pennsylvania governor’s race, Trump’s extremist Republican choice Doug Mastriano lost out to Democrat Josh Shapiro and in New Hampshire, Dan Bolduc, who embraced Trump’s lies over the 2020 election, lost to the Democratic incumbent, Maggie Hassan.
