Since Sean McVay became the Rams’ head coach in 2017, Los Angeles has fielded one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Over the last five years, the Rams have had 115 passing plays that gained at least 30 yards – tied for the fifth-most in the NFL.
The offense got a little stagnant in Jared Goff’s final season in 2020, but there was a noticeable uptick in big plays when Matthew Stafford took over last season. The Rams tied for the league lead with 28 passes of at least 30 yards, matching the Bengals. They were also second with 79 passes of 20-plus yards, up from the 55 they had in 2020.
Stafford is an aggressive quarterback and the Rams had a receiving corps last season that naturally created big plays, either on deep shots or by receivers making defenders miss after the catch. This season, it’s been a different story.
Through two weeks, the Rams haven’t completed a single pass that went for at least 30 yards. They’re one of three teams without a 30-yard pass. They also have just one rush of 15-plus yards after having 18 such plays last season.
So what exactly has caused this regression in explosive plays? It’s still very early, being just two games into the 2022 season, but there is a reason for the Rams’ lack of big gains. Very simply, teams are playing top-down coverage and attempting to take away deep shots down the field.
McVay attempted to explain it, saying these quarters coverages have become “a little bit more prevalent around the league.”
Sean McVay's explanation
“I think there’s certain situations and scenarios where you can earn some opportunities, but what’s so tough about those defensive structures is they force you to just be patient enough,” he said on Wednesday. “Now your margin for error is smaller. If you’re having to go 4 or 5, 6, 7 yards at a time. If you are able to stay ahead of the chains, you can avoid some of the tough third downs. There’s so many different directions that we could go with this conversation, but it’s like anything else, you pick and choose.”
McVay said he doesn’t care about stats or yards, but is focused on winning games. It’s mostly a matter of taking what the defense gives you, and through two weeks, the Bills and Falcons have not given the Rams many opportunities to push the ball downfield.
“The only thing I care about is coming away with the result that we’re obtaining, and that’s something that I think is important and that we kind of share as a team,” he added. “If that means that we’ve got to be able to take some shots, we’ll do that. But if you’re able to efficiently run the football, then you’re able to much more efficiently dictate the flow of the game, no different than being able to stop people on early downs defensively earns you opportunities to rush the passer.”
Two-high coverages take away downfield throws
Having read McVay’s explanation, here are a couple of examples of the way the Bills played the Rams. At the snap, there are two safeties deep, which immediately makes it tougher to take shots down the field.
Then the outside cornerbacks drop back into their zones, keeping everything in front of them. You can see Stafford briefly look Kupp’s way on the corner route before deciding to check down to Ben Skowronek.
This play was designed to be a deep shot to Kupp, but the Bills took it away with the free safety.
A few times, Buffalo gave the Rams a single-high look. There’s one safety in the deep middle pre-snap, but he sprints into zone coverage on one half of the field, with the nickel corner, Taron Johnson, sprinting back to cover the other deep half and take away the corner route out of the slot.
Granted, Stafford had only a split-second before the pocket collapsed anyway, but this was an instance where it looked like an opportunity to take a shot deep before the snap, only to see the defense actually drop into a two-high zone.
Lack of a deep threat?
Another factor in all of this is the lack of a true deep threat within the Rams offense. DeSean Jackson was their field-stretcher for a brief time early last season, and it did work in a few instances. Van Jefferson also assumed the role as a deep threat after Jackson was cut, and he had some success running downfield routes and connecting with Stafford – though, not as much as many would have hoped. Odell Beckham Jr. helped in this department, as well.
This season, Jefferson is injured, leaving Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson as the team’s top two receivers. Ben Skowronek isn’t going to scare any safeties with his speed, and Tutu Atwell can’t seem to get on the field; he’s played just nine snaps in two games.
Very simply, the Rams don’t have anyone who can win vertically with any sort of consistency, and they may not have someone to fill that role until Jefferson returns. There’s a lack of trust in Atwell right now, and with defenses playing the Rams the way they have, there isn’t a clear role for him yet.
The Rams have to wait for Jefferson to get healthy, which is when they’ll truly start to stretch the field. Kupp and Robinson can do that a little bit, but they don’t have the speed that Jefferson (or Atwell) possesses.
Matthew Stafford is finding a "delicate balance"
According to Next Gen Stats, Stafford is averaging just 6.3 intended air yards per attempt. That means his passes are traveling an average of 6.3 yards down the field this season. That’s the seventh-lowest rate in the NFL.
For comparison, he averaged 8.5 intended air yards per throw last season, which was eighth-highest in the league. So he was throwing the ball downfield much more often last year than he has in 2022, and he was completing those throws at a high rate, too; he finished third in completed air yards (6.7) last year and is now sixth-lowest in the NFL this season (4.8).
His passing charts show that, too. He’s taken a few shots down the field, but not many. And when he does throw deep, it’s toward the sideline where his receivers don’t have much room to gain yards after the catch.
There’s a clear void in the deep-middle of the field where he’s not completing passes.
For him, it’s a “delicate balance” between throwing it deep and trying to create big plays by hitting receivers on short throws and allowing them to pick up yards after the catch.
“I think everybody sits there and goes, ‘OK, you got to throw it over the top.’ That’s not really the case,” he told reporters Wednesday. “You look at explosives around the league, watching the Baltimore game before our game and Lamar (Jackson) throws a slant and that thing goes for 80. He runs, it goes for 80. I’m not going anywhere 80 yards, but some of the other guys on our team are fast enough to do that. Sometimes it’s that and sometimes it is throwing the ball over the top. So it’s a delicate balance, but I think that’s just everybody doing their job as good as they possibly can. Then you just let those special instincts for those guys to keep running with the football, or whatever it is, take over.”
The verdict
Really, the Rams’ lack of explosive plays is a combination of all the above. Yes, defenses are taking away deep shots by playing two-high shells, and in some instances, quarters coverage where four defensive backs are dropping back deep.
Yes, the Rams are lacking a true deep threat on the outside like they had with Brandin Cooks, DeSean Jackson (briefly) and Van Jefferson.
And yes, Stafford is being a little bit more conservative by taking what the defense gives him. That’s not a bad thing, either. The big plays will come when defenses get more aggressive and attack the Rams with blitzes and single-high coverages.
That’s when Stafford will capitalize on the opportunities, but he’s not going to force the issue for the sake of creating big plays.
