The Cleveland Browns advanced to 9-5 on the season after a thrilling come-from-behind win against the Chicago Bears.
They firmly hold the fifth seed in the AFC and would have still held it with a loss on Sunday. However, with a win, the Browns have now seen their probability of making the playoffs take a massive rise. As they travel to take on the Houston Texans, the Browns can all but stick a fork in any uncertainty with a tenth win on the season.
It also helps that the likes of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos lost this week as well. However, the Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Buffalo Bills, and Cincinnati Bengals all won to keep their hopes alive as well.
Here we take a look at three different playoff probability models from ESPN, New York Times, and Sumer Sports to see just where Cleveland’s chances now sit after winning two in a row.
Spoiler alert: the odds are ever in the Browns’ favor.
Sumer Sports: 91.8% chance to make the playoffs
Tej Seth of Sumer Sports puts out a playoff leverage graph every week showing how much is on the line for each team. Not a ton was on the line for the Browns this week as they still would have had a 78 percent chance to make the playoffs even with a loss.
However, with a win over the Bears, they have seen their probability of making the postseason soar to 92 percent.
*a lot* of playoff leverage on the line in week 15 as discussed in the weekend previewhttps://t.co/9ztpRbkK8t pic.twitter.com/miSHz3n8nK
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) December 15, 2023
ESPN Football Power Index: 89% percent chance to make the playoffs
ESPN’s FPI has been on the more conservative end of the Cleveland hype, as they have tended to be lower than the other models. However, even this metric has caught up after this win and advancing to 9-5 on the season.
The Browns are well on their way to a postseason birth.
NYT's playoff predictor: 88%
New York Times also has a playoff probability model, and it has the Browns sitting at 88 percent. If Flacco and the Browns can find a way to pull out another win against the Texans next week, a spot will almost certainly be locked down for the first time since 2020.
FTN's DVOA: 88.2%
FTN’s DVOA (formerly of Football Outsiders) has the Browns now sitting at an 88.2 percent chance to make the playoffs. While there is a bit of variance between all of these metrics, they all sit within a small four percent window between 88-92. This is great news for the Browns as they continue to fight until the end of the line.
