Gasoline is a commodity that tends to reach seasonal highs in spring and summer and lows in late fall and winter as drivers adjust their habits due to weather conditions.
A mid-September Barchart article on gasoline versus heating oil and one of the leading U.S. refining companies highlighted gasoline’s seasonality. I wrote, “Gasoline’s seasonality is readily evident in the oil product future’s forward curve… gasoline prices tend to command premiums during spring and summer and experience discounts during fall and winter months.” NYMEX gasoline futures for April 2025 delivery were trading at $2.0357 per gallon wholesale on September 11. In February 2025, the April futures were higher at over the $2.30 level. Still, the dramatic shift in U.S. energy policy could mean the upside potential is limited, and prices could head to the $2 level or lower. The U.S. Gasoline ETF (UGA) tracks the price of NYMEX gasoline futures.
