The day of the 2024 United States presidential election is upon us, and polls between the Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris and the Republican former president Donald Trump are as close as it gets. It’s a neck-and-neck race, with practically nobody certain of what the result of the presidential election will be, or when we’ll know it.
As the rest of the world watches America with bated breath and clenched butts, anxiety about the result of the 2024 US election is at an all-time high due to just how much we don’t know.
Given the sheer amount of factors that could determine the result, Chas Licciardello from ABC’s Planet America said that even trying to make predictions is “just stupid”.
“It’s like me asking you, ‘Who will win the AFL grand final?’ when there are eight teams who could all be in the Grand Final,” he told PEDESTRIAN.TV.
So instead of trying to answer who will win the 2024 US election, let’s take a crack at answering something more simple: when will we know the results of the American election?
Without further ado, here’s our official 2024 US election cheat sheet so you get to look super smart in front of all your friends while the results all come in!
When does voting close in the US 2024 election?
First things first, votes can’t be counted until the booths close.
Voting will close on Tuesday, November 5, at 6pm in each state. However, because we live in Australia, the time zones are going to be different.
For that reason, Aussies can start expecting the results of the 2024 US election to begin trickling in by around lunchtime AEDT on Wednesday, November 6.
As for guessing when we’ll learn the result? Turns out the answer is as uncertain as everything else in this dumpster fire of a presidential race…
When will we know the US 2024 election results?
The winner will be determined by whichever presidential candidate wins at least 270 of the seats in the US Electoral College.
Every state needs to count their votes to determine which way the electoral college seats will go. However, just like the Australian election, the votes that really matter are the ones in states/seats that swing.
Often the best early indicator we can get an election result is which way the swing states are voting, because if they are all going a certain way, then experts can make a clearer call on the winner.
In this election, there are a whopping seven swing states that could all determine the end result. They are:
- Arizona
- Georgia
- Michigan
- Nevada
- North Carolina
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
It likely means we’ll be waiting a buttload longer than usual for the 2024 results. And let’s not forget the 2020 election — which saw Joe Biden best Donald Trump — took four days for a winner to be called. We could be in for a long one, folks.
However, taking a guess at when the result will come in — or who will win — isn’t as simple as estimating the most likely outcome of each state’s vote.
“Whereas in the past, there have been one or two states that have been 50/50… but in this case, there are seven states that could determine the result,” Licciardello explained.
This causes a headache for those predicting the result, as the factors that could determine the way one state leans can be cancelled out by the other six battleground states.
“Each of them could be the tipping point state and so and each of them has different reasons that contradict each other,” said Licciardello.
“So if you go in one direction for one state, then you’d go in another direction for another state, and we just don’t know which of the seven states is going to be the critical state.
“We just don’t know. And so, for that reason, trying to make predictions is just stupid.”
However, there are some early indicators to watch out for that will allude to a Harris or Trump win. Read on.
Earliest sign that Kamala Harris will win
If VP Kamala Harris ends up winning by a landslide, one of the early signs will be the result in North Carolina.
“They’re traditionally a very fast counting state, and North Carolina is one of the swing states in play, but it’s a swing state that favours Trump a fair bit,” Licciardello stated.
“So if Kamala Harris wins North Carolina, you know, it’s pretty much over and she’s gonna win this election.”
If Harris is winning North Carolina, that will be apparent by around 2pm AEDT.
This means you could potentially find out the result before you’ve even finished your lunch break, and that America will have elected its first female president, and second ever person of colour into the Oval Office.
Alternatively…
Earliest sign that Donald Trump will win
If Donald Trump is going to win, the earliest possible time we could tell this is by watching the state of New Hampshire.
Although New Hampshire is not one of the seven battleground states of this election, it is one that could potentially vote for Trump if he’s winning by a landslide, and is therefore worth watching out for.
“I’d say around about the same time, about two o’clock, three o’clock [AEDT], you will know who’s winning New Hampshire,” Licciardello explained.
“And if Trump’s winning New Hampshire, that’s it. It’s over, it’s going to be Trump.”
Now this is all only if the results are a surprising red/blue wave toward one candidate.
And given how close the polls are, that ain’t likely.
When are we most likely to find out who won the 2024 US election?
Which brings us to the much more realistic third option — that this election is extremely tight and we can’t tell for days.
In this case, the result of the election is going to come down to three swing states in particular: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
And to make matters worse, according to Licciardello: “They happen to be the three slowest counting states.”
These states all take longer to finish counting because, unlike places like Florida that verify early votes and mail-in votes before election day, these three wait until after voting closes to process early ballots.
In the case of Michigan, it could take two days before we know the winner. Meanwhile, it could be the weekend before we know about the results in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
“If it’s going to be a bit of a ball scraper and we’re looking at days and days — which we almost certainly will be if it’s going to be very tight — then nothing that happens on election day is going to give us any real clue at all,” Licciardello said.
Prepare for your election parties to go until Saturday and Sunday, folks!
Lead Image: Getty
The author of this article works for Chas Licciardello on the Planet Extra Podcast (PEP).
The post When Will We Know The Results Of The 2024 Presidential Election? Your Cheat Guide Is Here appeared first on PEDESTRIAN.TV .
