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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
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Olga Chyzh

When will Putin give up Ukraine? Only when his inner circle forces him to stop

Vladimir Putin at an air-defence systems factory in St Petersburg, 18 January 2023
Vladimir Putin at an air-defence systems factory in St Petersburg, 18 January 2023. Photograph: Kremlin Pool/UPI/Rex/Shutterstock

Almost a year on, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has lost little of its shock value. Last weekend, a targeted missile strike hollowed out a residential building in Dnipro, killing 45 citizens. Now, the UK, France and even ever-cautious Germany are talking about supplying Ukraine with western tanks – something that seemed unthinkable even a month ago as western allies remained stuck in a bureaucratic game of chicken, with none willing to be the first to send tanks.

So what has changed? Top defence officials in the US and EU have explained the recent development as a way to help Ukraine gain decisive battlefield success that would force Russia into peace negotiations. Yet Ukraine has been desperately pleading with the west to provide offensive weapons since the early days of the invasion. What has motivated this new resolve among Ukraine’s western supporters?

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