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Daily Mirror
Daily Mirror
Business
Levi Winchester

When will interest rates start to fall? New IMF prediction is good news for homeowners

Interest rates in the UK have been steadily rising over the last 16 months - putting more pressure on households during the cost of living crisis.

The base rate - which influences what banks and lenders charge you, as their customer, to borrow money - was at an historic low of 0.1% in December 2021.

Fast forward to today, and the rate now sits at 4.25% after being hiked eleven times in a row by the Bank of England.

By raising interest rates, the Bank is trying to lower inflation, which is currently at 10.4% and its highest level in 40 years, largely due to soaring energy and food prices.

The theory is that when interest rates are higher, borrowing is more expensive and people will spend less, and this should then lower inflation.

But there's a downside: tracker mortgages and most variable rate deals go up with the base rate - meaning higher payments for many homeowners.

So when will interest rates start to go down? Here is what you need to know.

When will interest rates go down?

The base rate was last increased by 0.25 percentage points - from 4% to 4.25% - on March 23.

Seven of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted in favour of the rise.

The decision came one day after inflation unexpectedly rose from 10.1% to 10.4% despite economists largely expecting it to drop.

The next interest rates decision is not due until May 11.

So far, governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey has declined to say whether interest rates have reached a peak.

But in a new glimmer of hope, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) this week said interest rates in major economies are expected to fall back to pre-pandemic levels.

Before the Covid crisis, the UK base rate was 0.75%. It was then cut twice in March 2020 to 0.1% as the country entered lockdown.

In a new blog post, the IMF said "recent increases in real interest rates are likely to be temporary" but stopped short of pinpointing when they could start to fall.

It said: "When inflation is brought back under control, advanced economies' central banks are likely to ease monetary policy and bring real interest rates back towards pre-pandemic levels."

The IMF said ageing populations would help lower inflation, along with declining levels of productivity.

The Bank last month said it expects inflation "to fall sharply over the rest of the year" as wholesale gas prices are falling.

Lower energy bills are expected from this summer, with households currently paying an average of £2,500 a year under the Energy Price Guarantee.

The Bank also now expects the UK to avoid falling into recession - defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth - this year.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is predicted to increase slightly in the three months from the start of April.

This would reverse an earlier forecast that it would fall by 0.4%. GDP is used to measure the health and growth of the economy.

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