Amid all the drama in the deposing of Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan - her early defiance, the acceptance of the inevitable, the resignation speech and the shouty caucus meeting shortly after - what stood out for me didn't happen yesterday.
Rather, it was the declaration of loyalty uttered at a media conference six weeks beforehand by Ben Carroll, the man who would topple her. He said he could look her in the eye and vow not to mount a challenge to her leadership. Worse, he invoked his daughter.
"I've got a young daughter at home, and I couldn't be more proud to make sure she grows up knowing that I supported Jacinta Allan to be a world-class premier and get re-elected in her own right," he said.
I don't live in Victoria so paid little attention at the time. I was aware of plunging poll numbers and the bad smell emanating from the state's Big Build projects - cost blowouts and corruption allegations. But when Carroll's declaration of fealty re-emerged as he declared his intention to challenge, I was reminded of a golden rule of politics.
When your colleagues begin professing loyalty, feel the need to declare it, the writing is likely already on all the wall. It was only eight years ago when then Treasurer Scott Morrison, asked if he had leadership ambitions, threw his arms around Malcolm Turnbull and declared: "This is my leader. And I'm ambitious for him." Days later, Morrison became PM after a messy contest between Peter Dutton and Turnbull.
Turnbull himself had earlier played a similar game. In February 2015 he stated that then PM Tony Abbott had "utter loyalty and consistency" from his front bench. In September the same year, Turnbull rolled Abbott in a leadership spill.
Even when politicians explicitly rule out challenging, as Kevin Rudd did before deposing Julia Gillard, who had not long beforehand deposed him, more than a grain of salt should be taken.
Shortly after Paul Keating unsuccessfully challenged Bob Hawke in June 1991, Hawke told ABC radio: "Paul accepted the decision graciously, congratulated me and indicated there would be no further challenge from him."
Keating himself said at the time: "I wanted his job and I tried to take it off him - it's as simple as that. The fact is I only had one shot in the locker and I fired it."
He mounted a successful challenge six months later.
Victorian Liberals can't be criticised for making a meal of Ben Carroll's earlier declaration of loyalty. Who can blame them for capitalising on his own words when they cast a shadow over his trustworthiness?
But they can't be too smug about leadership. Not when they're on their fourth leader in six years. Not when they, too, have heard the same hollow utterances of loyalty repeated over and over again.
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THEY SAID IT: "Politics have no relation to morals." - Niccolo Machiavelli
YOU SAID IT: Longer days and the promise of warmer weather are welcome at this time of year. But raging fires in Europe and an El Nino declared add trepidation about the summer ahead.
"Every day as I take my morning walk up local bush tracks and fire trails, I look at the dense, overgrown bush on one side of the track, and an area opposite where local First Nations people carried out a cultural burn three years ago," writes Liz. "The difference is impossible to miss. The area where the burn was conducted is still clear of tangled undergrowth. After Black Summer there was much talk about listening and utilising the skills and 60,000 years' experience of our First Nations people and yet this is the only spot I have seen locally (and I walk many of the local trails) where such a burn has occurred. Why?"
Sue writes: "After making sure family were prepared for the new AusAlert test, I was struck by the thought that the government found this a necessary thing. Governments move slowly so the fact that we are in the testing phase for a disaster alert really strikes fear into my heart. I guess disasters are becoming a normal part of our lives, not 'once in 100 years' events."
"The wattles have bloomed early," writes Arthur. "Perhaps the weather bureau will get it wrong again and we will have a normal summer and no drought."
Deb writes: "I never hanker for summer's return. I much prefer Canberra's beautiful autumn and lovely, crisp winter days. And I'm still spooked by the bushfires of 23 years ago. If I see any haze around the place, I have a micro-panic that it might be smoke."
"The people in charge definitely should be preparing for summer, particularly as our winter has been warmer and drier than usual," writes Sally. "Like the Boy Scouts mantra, be prepared."
Mick writes: "It was in an AA pamphlet from Knoxville, Tennessee that the first mention of the 'Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results' was first cited. Every catastrophic bushfire report involves people living near national parks or on ridges overlooking a 'beautiful' bushland setting. Prepared to sacrifice their and rescuers lives for the aesthetic they get burnt out but insanely retort, 'We will rebuild!' Knoxville got it right."
"Living in Tathra on the NSW Far South Coast we only have to smell smoke and we feel the stress," writes Helen. "Tathra lost over 60 houses in one afternoon and evening in March 2018, and were again evacuated during the Black Summer fires of 2019/20. It is never far from our minds, although we didn't lose our house. The downside of living in the beautiful coastal places is the fact that everyone is surrounded by very flammable bush, also beautiful in its own way."
