Syria is reportedly sliding back towards civil war, as its various factions demand devolved authority. It is at root the same issue, that of local autonomy, that led to regional unrest in Ukraine and splintered leadership in Palestine. It underlies the devastating conflicts in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. All these places are flush with guns, allies and bombast. What they lack are national constitutions that allow their citizens sufficient local control to live at peace with others in one nation. They lack the skills of political federation.
The present Ukraine war followed the failure of peace accords reached in Minsk in 2014 and 2015; critically, they depended on the technical details of how self-determination was to be allowed in eastern Ukraine. A later failure was that of the Istanbul deal after the Russian invasion in 2022. It appeared to be the result of President Zelenskyy’s reaction to Vladimir Putin’s Bucha massacre. But the origins of failure go back to Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine’s reaction to years of corrupt and oppressive rule from Kyiv. Similar dissent exists among Russian minorities in the Baltic states. Everywhere, localism matters.
