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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
World
Max Harris

When people feel hopeless about politics, ‘vote-tripling’ can inspire them. Could it work for New Zealand?

Election signs for Freedoms NZ, the Green party and Labour ahead of the election on 14 October.
Election signs for Freedoms NZ, the Green party and Labour ahead of the election on 14 October. Photograph: Ben Mckay/AAP

New Zealand comedian Chris Parker recently released a clip on “People of the NZ Election”, showcasing the familiar cast of characters who crop up every time voting comes around.

There’s “The Frustrating Defeatist”, who thinks voting won’t make a difference. There’s the “The Amateur Journalist”, stroking his chin, commenting on the latest polling results. Then there’s “The One Who Treats Voting Day Like their Birthday”, geekily bursting with enthusiasm: “Let’s get out there and exercise our democratic right!” And “The Hopeful Optimist”: “We could rally together … hit the streets! We could really turn things around in our direction! Let’s get our phones, let’s start calling people – set up a flashmob!”

It’s not quite a flashmob, but one creative get-the-vote-out initiative has gathered traction during the New Zealand election campaign. It’s an initiative that, if overseas examples and evidence are anything to go by, holds promise to arrest sliding voter turnout or boost turnout. It’s called vote-tripling.

The idea’s simple. Find three people you know who might not vote in the election, persuade them to vote with their values, and follow up to lock in their vote.

This initiative is different from usual get-out-the vote strategies. First, it aims to persuade people through their own peers, rather than impersonal electoral commissions or political parties. Evidence shows peer-led voting mobilisation, like friend-to-friend text messaging, is more effective at lifting turnout.

Second, the behavioural scientist who devised vote-tripling highlights that picking three people you know – rather than, say, 10 – is feasible and effective. Enough to make a difference, when done at scale, but not so many that it’s unrealistic to take action.

The New Zealand vote-tripling initiative has been launched by community campaigners ActionStation. (Cards on the table: I work part-time at ActionStation, though vote-tripling wasn’t my idea.) But it’s based on successes overseas where the tactic’s helped defeat rightwing and far-right governments.

In 2022 the Brazilian organisation NOSSAS used a “Triplique Seu Voto” (Triple Your Vote) strategy to defeat far-right Jair Bolsonaro. More than 8,000 people tripled their votes in 50 WhatsApp groups, contributing to an increase of 570,000 voters in the second round of the presidential race. Left-wing candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva beat Bolsonaro by about 1.8%.

In the 2020 US presidential race, vote-tripling was used to build progressive turnout to defeat President Donald Trump. The organisation MoveOn mobilised 1 million volunteers to help turn out 3 million swing-state voters, using personal networks. In the 2022 US midterms MoveOn recruited 80,000 vote triplers, made almost 900,000 vote-tripling calls, and sent 49m texts, in an election where the expected Republican sweep of the Senate and House of Representatives was kept at bay.

In New Zealand, lower income people are less likely to turn out to vote. There’s also evidence Māori, Pasifika, and unemployed people are less likely to vote. In recent elections, younger people have tended to turn out the least number of voters as a percentage of those enrolled. Given these communities have, at times, tended to support progressive political parties – or parties of the left, like Labour and the Greens – there’s reason to think boosting turnout among these groups could improve progressive outcomes.

More than 30 partnering organisations have committed to vote-tripling, with many others signing up on a website, triplethevote.nz, that provides reminders to ensure people are persuading others they know. Over 130,000 young people have been reached on Instagram, with ActionStation using its 500,000-strong mailing list to amplify the message. Film-maker Bryan Bruce, author Katy Thomas, and others have supported vote-tripling. Victoria University students have been enthusiastically flyering lecture theatres with the vote-tripling message early in the morning. People from around the country have attended vote-tripling training sessions to learn how best to roll out the tactic in their own communities or within existing structures.

I’ve seen people gain hope and purpose from taking up vote-tripling. Individuals who feel powerless have something practical they can do – and if they want to do more, they can become an “organiser”, recruiting 10-25 other triplers. People seem inspired to take action as they face a choice between potentially transformative progressive proposals (such as universal dental), and conservative forces that would stall climate action, increase inequality and undermine Te Tiriti o Waitangi.

There’s evidence voter turnout is down so far from record highs in 2020. Creative tactics are not enough on their own: voters also need to be inspired by political parties enough to take tactics up. And as the election campaign enters its final week, time may be the biggest barrier.

No need to start a flashmob, or to be “The One Who Treats Voting Day Like Their Birthday” from Chris Parker’s clip. Just get three other people to vote with their values. It might just make the difference.

  • Max Harris is a lawyer, campaigner, and writer

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