When it comes to migration, we must separate fact from fiction – and be sceptical of political tough talk

‘It’s sometimes said politics is the narcissism of small differences, and that is certainly the case here.’ Photograph: Dan Peled/AAP

As Australia’s 2024 budget debate rages, the issue of migration has become a hot topic. The government plans to reduce net overseas migration to 260,000 next year, a target which is achievable and likely inevitable due to the natural ebb and flow of migration patterns, amplified during the pandemic.

Net overseas migration is the figure calculated by subtracting departures from arrivals annually. During the pandemic, the number plummeted due to stringent lockdowns but has surged back as those restrictions eased. This bounce back is not caused by more arrivals per se – rather, it’s fewer departures that have caused the spike.