The Federal Reserve is in a tricky spot these days as the central bank's rate-setting committee gathers for its next meeting.
On the one hand, economic growth remains solid and inflation remains above the Fed's long-term target. Price pressures could resurface as a result of President Donald Trump's tariff policies.
On the other, the jobs outlook is weakening, and too many folks are priced out of the housing market. Meanwhile, economists, strategists and investors are increasingly concerned about the central bank's independence going forward.
December's CPI report showed that consumer inflation held steady at 2.7%, relieving pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed's rate-setting panel, to raise rates. We should see further cooling ahead thanks to easier comparisons.
"The 12-month inflation rate for all prices will drop in January through March, but mostly because of strong price increases a year ago raised the base for the year-over-year calculation," writes Kiplinger economist David Payne.
Sluggish hiring, meanwhile, leaves the possibility of future rate cuts on the table.
These twin pulls make the Fed likely to leave the short-term federal funds rate unchanged at its next meeting, experts says.
"Firmer economic growth may be translating into some welcome improvement in labor markets, which should be sufficient to sideline the FOMC at month's end," writes Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. "At the same time, the peak-tariff effect on inflation could be in the rearview mirror, opening the door for more rate cuts this year."
When you consider the Fed's dual mandate against the backdrop of sticky inflation and a softening labor market, it makes sense that folks are obsessed with tracking when the next Fed meeting is coming up.
Lower interest rates today equal higher returns for equities tomorrow.
The next Fed meeting: What to expect
As you can see from the FOMC meeting calendar below, the committee meets eight times a year, or about once every six weeks. The FOMC is required to meet at least four times a year and might convene additional meetings if necessary. The convention of meeting eight times per year dates to the market stresses of 1981.
FOMC meetings last two days and conclude with the committee releasing its policy decision at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time. The Fed chief then holds a press conference at 2:30 pm. (Pro tip: As closely scrutinized as the Fed statement might be, market participants are usually even more keen on what the Fed chair has to say in the press conference.)
As for the next Fed meeting, it will begin on Tuesday, January 27, and conclude with a policy statement on Wednesday, January 28, at 2 pm EST.
As of January 20, interest rate traders assigned a 97% probability to the FOMC leaving the fed funds rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%, according to CME FedWatch.
That's up from 78% a month ago. The odds of a quarter-point cut stood at 3%, down from 22% last month.
The schedule of upcoming Fed meetings is listed below, courtesy of the FOMC.
January 27-28, 2026 |
March 17-18, 2026 |
April 28-29, 2026 |
June 16-17, 2026 |
July 28-29, 2026 |
September 15-16, 2026 |
October 27-28, 2026 |
December 8-9, 2026 |
