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Evening Standard
Evening Standard
World
Sian Baldwin

When is Super Tuesday 2024 and what does it mean for Biden and Trump?

US voters are taking to the polls in one of the biggest days in the countdown to this year’s presidential election.

Tomorrow (Tuesday, March 5) is known as Super Tuesday – with millions of voters expected to cast their ballots across a number of US states.

Voters will make their opinions clear on who should lead the parties next, with a round of voting for the ‘presidential primaries’ as well as voting on the chambers of the US Congress – the House of Representatives and Senate.

Current president Joe Biden is facing little opposition on the Democratic side and is all but guaranteed to be confirmed as the party’s nominee.

But the highly controversial race for the Republican presidential nomination continues, with former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley still very narrowly in the run.

She is the last major candidate still challenging the frontrunner, former president Donald Trump.

Here’s all you need to know about Super Tuesday.

What is Super Tuesday?

Super Tuesday is the United States’ presidential primary election day and is always held at this time of year in an election year.

It is when the greatest number of US states hold primary elections and is the day some candidates fall out of the race entirely to represent their country.

This state-level race essentially decides the candidates from the two major political parties – the Democrats and the Republicans – before the main election.

The contest will unfold from coast-to-coast, and while most of the attention will be on the presidential races, there are other important elections on Tuesday.

They include contests to fill seats in the Senate and House of Representatives, as well as in state legislatures.

Races for lower-level posts such as prosecutors, judges, city councillors, and school board members will also be held.Caitlin Jewitt, an associate professor of political science at Virginia Tech, said: “Because there are so many states holding contests simultaneously, candidates need to be really well funded, well organised, and have good name recognition to do well across the board on Super Tuesday.

“If we have a clear frontrunner going into Super Tuesday, we often see that – after Super Tuesday – that candidate is by far the frontrunner and many others drop out of the race.”

Which states are voting?

  • Alabama
  • Alaska (Republicans only)
  • Arkansas
  • California
  • Colorado
  • Iowa (Democrats only) 
  • Maine
  • Massachusetts
  • Minnesota
  • North Carolina
  • Oklahoma
  • Tennessee
  • Texas
  • Utah
  • Vermont
  • Virginia

The territory of American Samoa will also be voting. Some of these seats are not only vital for the presidential race, but also for representatives in other votes.

What are some Super Tuesday races to watch?

One of the most consequential contests is in California, in the primary contest for the Senate seat left open by the death of Democratic senator Dianne Feinstein.

The seat's temporary incumbent, Laphonza Butler, isn't running for a full term, and rather than having the winners of party primaries face off in November, California is throwing every candidate into a single primary, with the top two make it to the general election.

Another key seat is Texas, where Democratic candidates are competing for a chance to challenge Republican Ted Cruz.

Controversial far-right Republican attorney general Ken Paxton is targeting seats, although his own party tried to impeach him.

Congressman Colin Allred is the favourite among Democrats, compared with 12 percent for his closest challenger, Texas state senator Roland Gutierrez.

Meanwhile, in Minnesota, Muslim community leaders are urging voters to choose “uncommitted” on their Democratic primary ballots in protest of Biden’s support for Israel amid the Gaza war. 

The results of the Democratic caucuses in Iowa, which are being held via mail-in ballot, are also expected on March 5.

What does it mean for Biden and Trump?

The day is a crucial one – especially for Trump, who is the only one of the two leading candidates for the White House to be facing real opposition at this stage from within his own party.

But many presidential candidates who have already dropped out of the race will still appear on the ballot.

More than one-third of the total delegates available in both the Republican and Democratic presidential primaries will be awarded on Super Tuesday.

On the Republican side, 854 of 2,429 delegates will be at stake, while Democrats will award 1,420 delegates. Trump has so far earned 247 delegates and needs 968 more to hit his so-called “magic number” of 1,215. Biden currently has 206 delegates and needs 1,762 to hit 1,968.

When are Super Tuesday’s results?

Once polls close in each state and territory – typically, that is around 7pm local time – results will start coming in.

Where does the phrase Super Tuesday originate?

US elections have traditionally been held on a Tuesday since the mid-19th century, as it was deemed the easiest day for workers, who were mostly religious in those days, to vote.

The origins of the phrase are a bit murky, but Pew Research Center editor Drew DeSilver says it dates back to at least 1976. At the time, though, “Super Tuesday” referred to the last major primaries in June: California, New York, and Ohio, and the phrase was used in a number of national publications.

Super Tuesday was solidified in the 80s, with most states front-loading candidates. And it was well established by 1988, when Democratic leaders in several Southern states reasoned that if their states held their nominating contests on the same day, they could boost the chances that someone from the region would get the nomination.

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