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Wales Online
Wales Online
Sport
Sam Portillo

When Cardiff City can officially guarantee Championship survival and the results they need

After spending the best part of three months in 21st, just one perilous place above the relegation zone, Cardiff City's climb up to 19th has brought a feeling of relative calm - but how safe are Sabri Lamouchi's side with four games still to play?

They head into the weekend with 45 points with 42 games played. And that is the Bluebirds' most obvious advantage in the final stretch: they have played one fewer game than every team below them, which means one more opportunity to get points on the board.

Despite the game in hand, Lamouchi has made it clear he would prefer points on the board over anything else.

READ MORE: New Championship relegation picture as Cardiff City edge closer to safety with Reading and QPR in big trouble

"Here we didn't want to play well, we just wanted the points to save the club," he told reporters after the Watford win.

Today Cardiff host Stoke City, before heading to relegation rivals Rotherham on Thursday after the original fixture was abandoned due to a waterlogged pitch with the Bluebirds ahead 1-0.

City will finish their league campaign with a home tie against Huddersfield on April 30 and a visit to already-promoted and prospective champions Burnley on May 8.

But Lamouchi's men can guarantee they finish no lower than 22nd with a win against Stoke. Even if Blackpool and Wigan win all of their remaining games, they would finish on 47 and 46 points respectively, with Cardiff out of reach on 48.

That would leave only Reading to worry about - and this is where fans may want to get their calculators out.

A disastrous points deduction puts the Royals on 43 points with just three games left to play. If they achieve maximum points from these games, they will finish with 52 points.

If Reading win all three games, including their tie with Huddersfield, that would mean the Terriers can only finish on 50 points, meaning Cardiff only need five more points for safety (assuming goal difference stays better).

If Reading draw against play-off hopefuls Coventry today, their highest possible points tally would be 50, requiring six points - two wins, or one win and three draws - for Cardiff to be mathematically safe.

If Reading lose, they could only finish with as many as 49 points - and defeat does seem likely, with the Royals enduring a torrid time of 10 games without a win, a points deduction and the loss of manager Paul Ince.

A Reading loss and Cardiff victory would take the Bluebirds within three points of safety, meaning they could finish the job at Rotherham on Thursday.

Any battle is about momentum - and the longer Reading extend their joyless run without a win, the less likely they are to manage a positive result. Three games may not be enough to turn their fortunes around.

Cardiff, on the other hand, will have been revived by the win against Watford in midweek and know their fate is in their hands.

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