Max Verstappen started 2024 with seven victories in 10 grands prix so it looked as though the Red Bull driver would cruise towards another championship.
But McLaren then made major developments to its car, and the MCL38 is now the quickest package on the Formula 1 grid meaning Red Bull is no longer dominant.
The Woking squad now leads the constructors’ standings having won four times since Verstappen’s last victory, which came in June at Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya.
There have been eight grands prix since then and in that time Verstappen’s championship lead has reduced from 69 points to 52 with Lando Norris as his nearest challenger.
The McLaren driver has won two of the last four races and is staging a late charge for his maiden world title - but this up-turn in form may have come too late.
So, what are the different championship permutations and when is the earliest someone can claim the title?
Which drivers can still win the F1 world championship in 2024?
The 2024 F1 season has six grands prix and three sprint races - Austin, Brazil and Qatar - remaining, which means there are 180 points left available.
So, seven drivers can still mathematically become world champion in 2024 from Verstappen down to seventh-placed George Russell, who holds a 176-point deficit.
Russell’s Mercedes team-mate Lewis Hamilton is 19 points ahead in sixth and the seven-time world champion trails fifth-placed Carlos Sainz by 16 points.
That means the Ferrari driver is 141 points behind Verstappen, so it is fair to say that a near-on miracle is needed for Sainz, Hamilton or Russell to become champion.
It gets tighter from fourth-placed onwards though: McLaren’s Oscar Piastri is 94 points behind Verstappen and is the highest-scoring driver of the last six rounds.
Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc is third and trails Verstappen by 86 points, two years after he staged a failed title fight against the triple world champion.
Such a large gap means it is unlikely Leclerc will become champion this year, but 34 points ahead of him is Norris, who realistically is Verstappen’s only challenger.
How can Lando Norris become F1 world champion in 2024?
Norris must outscore Verstappen by an average of six points over the remaining six grands prix and three sprint races to become F1’s world champion in 2024.
If that happens, the title would be decided at the Abu Dhabi season finale but the McLaren driver can of course clinch the championship before then - for example, if he takes maximum points in the final rounds and Verstappen fails to score.
In that scenario, Norris would be champion after the Qatar Grand Prix sprint race on the penultimate weekend of the season. Coincidentally, that would make it two straight years that the championship has been won after a sprint, as Verstappen took his third title by finishing second in the sprint race at Losail International Circuit.
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Situation before
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USA
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Mexico
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Brazil
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Las Vegas
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Qatar
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UAE
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Points remaining
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180
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146
|
112
|
86
|
52
|
26
|
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Norris’ points tally
|
279
|
313
|
339
|
373
|
407
|
433
|
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Verstappen to Norris
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Leading by 52
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Leading by 18
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Trailing by 8
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Trailing by 42
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Trailing by 76
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Trailing by 102
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But Verstappen not taking another point this season is highly unlikely, especially when the Australian GP has been his only non-score of 2024.
Should Norris therefore win all of the remaining races, alongside each fastest lap bonus point, the 24-year-old needs Verstappen to finish second or lower in the last six grands prix and no higher than third in the sprints.
So the importance of the sprint race has arguably never been this high. That’s because if the above scenario happens then Norris is champion by two points, but if Verstappen finishes second in the three sprints, alongside runner-up in the final six grands prix, the 27-year-old takes his fourth crown by one point.
Yet Norris only has three victories this season, so it is also unrealistic to expect him to win all of the remaining races. To therefore maintain an average of six points over Verstappen in every outing, Norris needs his rival to be fourth or lower at each grand prix should the McLaren driver finish second for all of them.
If Norris is third, Verstappen cannot be any higher than sixth, while finishing eighth or lower is not enough for the McLaren driver. Meanwhile, for the sprints, Norris realistically needs to be finishing inside the top three as fourth is only worth five points.
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If Norris has this finishing position in the grand prix…
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Then Verstappen must be
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If Norris has this finishing position in the sprint race…
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Then Verstappen must be
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1st
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2nd or lower
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1st
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7th or lower
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2nd
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4th or lower
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2nd
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8th or lower
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3rd
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6th or lower
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3rd
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9th or lower
|
|
4th
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7th or lower
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4th
|
9th or lower
|
|
5th
|
8th or lower
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5th
|
9th or lower
|
|
6th
|
9th or lower
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6th
|
9th or lower
|
|
7th
|
11th or lower
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7th
|
9th or lower
|
|
8th
|
11th or lower
|
8th
|
9th or lower
|
|
9th
|
11th or lower
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9th
|
9th or lower
|
|
10th
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11th or lower
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10th
|
9th or lower
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There are also questions over if Norris can maintain that average points advantage. In the last six grands prix, Verstappen has scored 76 points compared to his rival’s 108, which makes an average of just 5.3 points per race in Norris’ favour.
So Verstappen is still favourite to win the 2024 world championship, especially as it is still plausible for Norris to take maximum points for the rest of the season and not claim the title.
How can Max Verstappen become F1 world champion in 2024?
The stipulations for Verstappen to become champion are much simpler, because the maximum points tally Norris can finish on this season is 459 - only 128 more than the Dutchman’s current total.
So 129 points over the next six race weekends is enough for Verstappen, and that equates to approximately five grand prix victories plus a handful of points in the sprints. But that’s still not too realistic given he hasn’t won for eight rounds and only finished on the podium three times during that run.
At this stage, it’s more of a percentage game for Verstappen to ensure he doesn’t finish too far behind Norris as the MCL38 is far superior. That target of 129 is also only considering the possibility of Norris scoring maximum points for the rest of the season, so it will of course continue to decrease as the season approaches its end.
Should Verstappen also finish above Norris in a grand prix, that will go a long way towards the Red Bull driver becoming champion. He may also take the title after the Qatar sprint should the current points gap stay as it is.
But that’s not the earliest Verstappen can become a four-time world champion. If the highly unlikely scenario happens in that he takes a maximum score for each of the remaining six weekends and Norris fails to earn another point, Verstappen will claim the crown after the sprint race in Brazil on the fourth to last weekend of the season.
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Situation before
|
USA
|
Mexico
|
Brazil
|
Las Vegas
|
Qatar
|
UAE
|
|
Points remaining
|
180
|
146
|
112
|
86
|
52
|
26
|
|
Verstappen's points tally
|
331
|
365
|
391
|
417
|
451
|
477
|
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Norris’ deficit
|
52
|
86
|
112
|
138
|
172
|
198
|
