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Barchart
Austin Schroeder

Wheat Leading the Grain Rally on Black Sea Strikes

The wheat complex is trading with sharp midday gains across the three exchanges. Chicago SRW contracts are 16 to 18 ¼ cents so far on the day. KC HRW futures are 22 to 23 cents across the front months. MPLS spring wheat is 13 to 14 cents higher.

Overnight, there were Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s Novorossiysk port, halting operations at the country’s largest port. Russia responded this morning by striking a vessel in Ukraine’s Odesa port.

NASS Crop Production data from this morning showed 1.531 bbu of wheat output for 2026, down 5 mbu from July. Winter wheat was steady with last month at 990 mbu, with HRW at 463, mbu, down 8 mbu, with SRW unchanged at 287 mbu. Spring wheat was tallied at 474 mbu, down just 1 mbu from last month, with durum at 66 mbu and dropping 5 mbu.

WASDE data tallied ending stocks for 2026/27 at 717 mbu, down 5 mbu due to the production reduction. World ending stocks were raised by 0.41 MMT to 273.25 MMT. That was due to a 1 MMT increase to Canada, and 1.4 MMT hike to Ukraine, with the EU down 1.8 MMT. Russian exports were trimmed by 1.5 MMT, with Ukraine down 0.5 MMT.

Sep 26 CBOT Wheat is at $6.48 1/2, up 18 1/4 cents,

Dec 26 CBOT Wheat is at $6.65, up 16 3/4 cents,

Sep 26 KCBT Wheat is at $7.22 1/4, up 23 cents,

Dec 26 KCBT Wheat is at $7.38 3/4, up 22 3/4 cents,

Sep 26 MIAX Wheat is at $6.73 1/4, up 14 cents,

Dec 26 MIAX Wheat is at $6.98 1/4, up 13 3/4 cents,

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