C.J. Stroud is in the building.
The Ohio State quarterback meets Wednesday with Houston Texans coach DeMeco Ryans, general manager Nick Caserio, and the rest of the decision-makers of the Houston Texans inside NRG Stadium.
Stroud has a chance to solidify himself as lock to go in the top-2 of the upcoming 2023 NFL draft while the Texans have an opportunity to get to know one of football’s best professional prospects.
The former Buckeye standout is considered a huge favorite to go first overall to the Carolina Panthers. However, with the consensus around Alabama quarterback Bryce Young as the player in the position group, few would be surprised if Carolina began to signal a different route leading up to the draft. As such, it’s become imperative that Houston become comfortable with Stroud despite Young’s natural fit with the team and status as a huge favorite amongst the fanbase.
As the Texans faithful try to grow comfortable with the idea of either quarterback in a post-Week 18 world, there’s been push back against the idea of Stroud as a worthy consolation prize should the Panthers select Young.
A dive into the film and Stroud’s background shows a player and a prospect that Houston ultimately shouldn’t hesitate to pick towards the biggest hole on their roster and their current biggest obstacle towards winning.
The person
Coleridge Bernard Stroud did not grow up as football royalty. When he was 13, his father was sentenced to 38 years in prison which left Stroud, his three siblings and his mother on their own. He remained relatively off the radar until junior season when he was finally able to start as a varsity quarterback.
The rest is history.
C.J. Stroud has been a freakishly accurate passer for a long time it looks like.
Practice makes perfect: pic.twitter.com/8rtsCEQMAu
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) April 5, 2023
After a somewhat pedestrian junior campaign, Stroud started his senior year as a three-star recruit and had a year for the ages at Rancho Cucamonga High School outside of Los Angeles, California. Despite his status as a borderline top-20 quarterback, he won the Elite 11 MVP that summer at the heralded quarterback camp. He even defeated the consensus top overall prospect in the class, Young, for those honors.
Stroud proceeded to throw for 3,878 yards and 48 touchdowns in a senior season that cemented him as the eventual No. 3 quarterback in his class and a top-50 player nationally. He committed to Ohio State to work under head coach Ryan Day’s pass-heavy offense.
Stroud was forced to redshirt his first season in Columbus and sat behind Justin Fields for a year before competing for the starting job. He was able to defeat high school phenom Quinn Ewers in addition to two other five-star quarterbacks rostered by Ohio State at that time for the starting position.
The player
Stroud took the starting job at Ohio State and, despite an opening loss to the Oregon Ducks, never looked back.
A little glossed over that C.J. Stroud beat out two five-star quarterback prospects and high school phenom Quinn Ewers to be hand-selected by HC Ryan Day in 2021.
Wasn't just plopped into a wildly productive situation and offense. Redshirted, competed, earned it.
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) April 5, 2023
Stroud started 12 of 13 games, missing a Week 2 contest due to injury, and completed 71.9% of his passes for 4,435 yards and a staggering 44 touchdowns. His performance complimented future first round receivers Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave beautifully as both saw career high numbers and his aerial dominance was at a level untouched by even Fields the year prior.
The campaign was capped by a particularly dazzling Rose Bowl performance where, despite the absence of Olave and Wilson, he set Rose Bowl records with 573 passing yards and six touchdowns. He’d ultimately lose the Davey O’Brien Trophy and the Heisman Trophy to Young.
Stroud was the projected No. 1 quarterback entering 2022 and expected to become the top pick in the 2023 NFL draft if all went well. By all accounts, it did.
Ohio State asked him to throw less this past season and his season totals reflected that. He completed 66.3% of his attempts for 3,688 yards and 41 touchdowns. This time, his performance and the overall team effort was enough to propel the Buckeyes into the College Football Playoff.
Against Georgia’s defense, Stroud completed 67.6% of his passes for 348 yards and four touchdowns with zero turnovers. Ohio State nearly pulled off the huge upset before their kicker missed a 50-yard field goal in a 42-41 loss.
The prospect
Stroud’s story is somewhat typical for those that find themselves at the top of the NFL draft. A heralded high school quarterback that produced at an insane level at one of the country’s best programs. He’s the latest in a long line of Ohio State quarterbacks and is considered the best passer of any that have played under Day to this point.
Stroud stands at 6-3 and 215 pounds representing a classic NFL pocket passer and with a point guard style that would traditionally be a lock to go No. 1 in years past.
He is the most accurate passer in the draft, his film shows a player that can consistently layer throws and places balls exactly where his receivers need them to be. Stroud throws equally well to all three levels of the field and has a big enough arm to make any throw that the NFL will ask and one that defensive backs will likely not challenge.
Bryce Young is my QB1 from this draft, but it's so close between him and C.J. Stroud.
This throw from Stroud is insane. pic.twitter.com/f8TTLi9xxc
— Brenden Deeg (@BrendenDeeg_) April 3, 2023
His production will inevitably be compared to previous Ohio State quarterbacks. His passing production, both in yards/attempt, total yardage, and passing touchdowns easily eclipses the best season from Fields. The throws that he puts on film, both in touch and difficulty, place him on a different level than Dwayne Haskins had in 2019.
Stroud showed a general ability to work through his reads on the field. However, the offense rarely challenged this from him. Factor in the level of dominance with the receivers he played with, and a willingness to let those guys win, and there is reasonable room to assume this wasn’t because he is unable to do so consistently.
One of Stroud’s biggest question marks entering the draft will inevitably be his ability to handle pressure. He’s not a very natural secondary playmaker and, especially in his first season at Ohio State, struggled when the pocket presence wasn’t clear.
His final contests against Michigan and Georgia, despite both being losses, showed a different quarterback. They were the two best defensive lines he was forced to play all season and, in those contests, he showed a willingness to both navigate and leave the pocket that had not been previously highlighted.
The national title game in football was AMAZING pic.twitter.com/T97vbj5yYI https://t.co/hGPYR8znv9
— AJ King (@allday_ajking) April 4, 2023
Stroud had the benefit of playing with likely five first round receivers, both past and future, while starting as a Buckeye. It is not unreasonable at all to give him the benefit of the doubt that he expected these players to find leverage and trusted his natural throwing talent to perform when they did.
Particularly in the Georgia game, where the defensive line was disruptive to the level of four sacks, Stroud showed off a comfort extending plays that had been previously unseen. He ran for 34 yards in the contest and that is after accounting for yardage subtracted from each sack. He was able to avoid pressure both interior and outside while keeping his eyes down the field and letting his receivers win.
Ohio State didn't use C.J. Stroud as runner all too often during his time as a starter.
But when it was tough to throw the ball on a windy day vs. a Northwestern defense that was running the routes for the Buckeyes receivers. Stroud got to show off his running ability. pic.twitter.com/GreMYp5HxN
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) April 4, 2023
This is an area of his game that will have to continue to develop, but the overall trend line and his performance in situations that more accurately mirror NFL scenarios are encouraging. There were times in the film where it was frustrating at his relative reluctance to takeoff when the defense presented that opportunity. Coaching may have to play a part in that and instructing at one point he needs to remember and account that he can take off.
Teams will have to take his weaknesses and put them within the context of the Ohio State offense. Their willingness to attribute them partially to the situation, or an unwillingness to do so, will play a large part in how believably they can be fixed.
His strengths project a high floor at the NFL level. He is a sturdy, strong and accurate passer with a willingness to stick in the pocket and incredible touch to put his receivers in position to win. His floor, with both playmaking and a general unwillingness to use his legs, beg the question of how high Stroud can go in today’s NFL. Jared Goff is probably a mid-level comparison if his game does not continue to grow, his ceiling looks like Joe Burrow if his trend continues from what onlookers saw at the end of 2022.
The Texans fit
Ultimately, Stroud’s best qualities are one that offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and Ryans will likely covet in Houston. The West Coast system they’re expected to deploy has an emphasis on rhythm and timing and nobody does it better in the entire class than Stroud.
He has the athleticism needed to run any quarterback motion or bootleg that is seen in today’s game. Teams will never look to run Stroud intentionally but, overall, he has legs that can pick up first downs if defenses are too careless in man coverage.
Stroud would be an excellent fit behind Houston’s projected stout offensive line and the tackle bookends would give him more time to develop how he feels pressure and when he wants to extend. They’d also highlight his best existing trait which is allowing receivers to win.
His decision making and accuracy would allow the team to win in ways they failed to last year under Davis Mills. Turnovers would be highly limited, and sideline throws to move the chains would be much more reliable. Ryans and his defense, unlike Lovie Smith, would actually have a chance to win on their good days.
Houston currently lacks the elite, jump ball winning wideout you’d love to pair with Stroud but they have a good group of space finders between John Metchie and Robert Woods while Nico Collins and his huge frame should take a big leap forward. Dalton Schultz would serve as a good safety blanket at the tight end position.
The biggest concern with Stroud comes off the field. Despite no problems of his own, he has chosen super-agent David Mulugheta to guide his career. Houston fans have seen what happens with Mulugheta quarterbacks in the Bayou City.
Hopefully, the Texans are able to let bygones be bygones.
Stroud is a player that is an elite quarterback and one who would be viewed as a top-5 pick in virtually any draft. It would be unfortunate to allow the 2021 franchise quarterback meltdown radioactively contaminate them twice.
Stroud may not inspire the same level of confidence and awe as Young, but the film and the traits show a quarterback that should find success wherever he lands in the NFL. Houston should not hesitate if presented the opportunity.
