Nobody saw this coming: the New Orleans Saints dismantled the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday and are leaving town with a much-needed win, keeping their playoff hopes alive as the wild card race takes shape. It was maybe the Saints’ most entertaining game of the year, and certainly their most complete effort against a quality opponent.
How did we get here? Let’s break it down by asking and answering three questions:
- What went right?
- What went wrong?
- And what’s the bottom line?
What went right?
Derek Carr was on point today. The Saints quarterback completed 24 of his 32 pass attempts for 197 yards, and he was only sacked twice; he threw two touchdown passes to tight end Juwan Johnson and do-it-all quarterback Taysom Hill (who also connected on a pass to Johnson earlier in the game, bringing this full-circle). The Saints made play action and passes to their tight ends a priority and Carr responded well throughout the afternoon. These are the kind of results we expected based off their performance over the summer.
Defensively, the Saints were highly opportunistic with five takeaways: three interceptions (one of which came on a two-point conversion attempt, which weirdly doesn’t count into the box score) and two fumble recoveries. The pass rush livened up and defenders got their hands on multiple passes at the line of scrimmage to make life hard on Baker Mayfield. And the run defense that had been a problem in so many recent games finally held up even when the Buccaneers kept trying them.
What went wrong?
Chunk plays were a problem for the Saints defense — the Buccaneers repeatedly attacked them downfield and they gave up passes of 30-plus yards to three different players, including a 47-yard touchdown grab for Chris Godwin. Mike Evans gained 35 yards on his longest catch of the afternoon, but Trey Palmer led the team with a 54-yard grab. The Saints lack some range in the secondary on the back end, but they do a better job in coverage so long as they can keep the play in front of them.
If there’s something to complain about offensively, it’s that they slowed down significantly in the second half: after scoring points on three of their five drives in the first half, the Saints punted on four of their six drives after halftime and twice settled for field goals before the end-of-game sequence. The defense also settled in a little too comfortably in the fourth quarter, where they allowed both of Tampa Bay’s touchdown-scoring drives. They got away with it this time, but that complacency could prove fatal against a better team.
And what's the bottom line?
The Saints won big on Sunday, and that’s very encouraging — but it isn’t enough clinch a playoff berth, and there isn’t anything the Saints can do on their own to achieve that. They dropped too many games to other teams in the hunt earlier this year, and now they don’t control their own destiny. It’s fine to celebrate this win (honestly, given how pessimistic the fanbase has become at times, we’d encourage that), but it’s worth keeping perspective about the state of this team.
Dennis Allen is returning for 2024, and Derek Carr will be back with him. If there’s one key takeaway from this game it’s that we have proof Carr can play like an above-average quarterback when things are going well around him. Whether it’s his play caller working to his strengths or his offensive line holding up and receivers getting open (or the rushing attack pulling its weight), Carr is a quarterback who can win games for the Saints. The challenge is going to be getting all of those ingredients together week in and week out, and nailing down that formula has to be a priority in the offseason.
So what comes next?
The Saints will close out the regular season against their oldest and most familiar rival: the Atlanta Falcons, who were spanked by the Chicago Bears in a 37-17 loss on Sunday. This is a must-win game for New Orleans no matter the circumstances — pride is on the line whenever the dirty birds are in town. That a loss would eliminate the Saints from playoff contention is only more fuel for the fire.
As we said earlier, winning this game alone won’t clinch a playoff berth. The Saints will have to watch the scoreboard and see whether the Carolina Panthers can rally and notch a win over the Buccaneers for themselves (and it’s worth noting they played the Bucs close in Tampa Bay back in Week 13, losing 21-18). A Saints win combined with a Buccaneers loss would seal up the NFC South for New Orleans. With so much uncertainty in the murky wild card race, this is the Saints’ best shot at reaching the playoffs.
