A month of the 2022-23 men’s basketball season has already passed, and we have seen big upsets, buzzer beaters and incredible games. But what have we been able to glean from all of the action that has taken place?
Some teams have impressed over the first four weeks (hello, UConn), while others (hello, North Carolina) have not lived up to lofty preseason expectations. Players like Zach Edey, Reece Beekman, Jalen Wilson and Marcus Sasser have impressed. We are starting to get a good look at what to expect this season, so let’s review some of the things we have learned so far.
All odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Virginia is the real deal, and looks like the tops in the ACC
Don’t look now, but the Cavaliers might have the best collection of wins in the country. Now ranked No. 3, Virginia went out to Las Vegas to play in the Continental Tire Main Event with Baylor, UCLA and Illinois. Tony Bennett’s squad got impressive wins over then-No. 5 Baylor and then-No. 16 Illinois to claim the title.
Add in a gritty road win at Michigan in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, and the Cavaliers are showing they’re more than just a threat to win the ACC. It’s not just that they’re winning games. It’s how. Virginia brought back all five starters from a team that missed the tournament. Everyone who returned after playing meaningful minutes last year has made a leap this season — none more so than point guard Reece Beekman. The Hoos added transfer Ben Vander Plas (Ohio) and first years Ryan Dunn and Isaac McKneely (plus Isaac Traudt and Leon Bond, who are redshirting) to round out a stunningly deep rotation.
Virginia is getting to the line with way more frequency than any Bennett team ever has (4th in the nation per KenPom), and they are keeping opponents off of it (24th in the nation). Back-to-back games against lesser-but-not-awful teams with stressful finishes has shown Virginia still has work to do, but they also were without a full-strength Beekman.
We’ll learn a lot about the Hoos when they resume play on December 17 against No. 1 Houston. Should be a good one in Charlottesville.
This Gonzaga team won't be a No. 1 seed
Don’t get me wrong, the Zags are still a very good basketball team. Gonzaga has played a bear of a schedule over the first month of the season:
- Close win over Michigan State
- Blowout loss to Texas
- Comfortable win over Kentucky
- Blowout loss to Purdue
- Close win over Xavier
- Close loss to Baylor
The Zags didn’t pick up their third loss of the season until late February last year, and you get three total losses if you combine Gonzaga’s 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons. At 6-3, Gonzaga has just one game remaining against KenPom top-15 teams — a December 17 matchup against Alabama.
I don’t think Mark Few’s squad is in danger of missing the tournament, but no one will want to face 4-seed Gonzaga come March.
North Carolina is STRUGGLING
A lot of experts believed that North Carolina’s run to the Final Four in 2022, coupled with returning almost all of the roster, would mean the Tar Heels would be the top dog in 2023. Well, that’s decidedly not the case. UNC is on a four-game losing skid, dropping games to Iowa State, Alabama, Indiana and Virginia Tech. None of those are what I’d consider a bad loss individually, but a team with title hopes needs to show more than what we’ve seen.
As a result, UNC has plummeted from No. 1 to out of the rankings in a four week span. While Pete Nance (transfer from Northwestern) has been solid, the Heels are struggling offensively without the three-ball shooting threat of Brady Manek. Combine that with Caleb Love and R.J. Davis being inefficient on offense and Armando Bacot dealing with injury, well…it hasn’t been good. It’s not time to give up on the Tar Heels — we saw what this team is capable of when they get hot — but it’s clear that last season’s run was more of a hot stretch than a sustainable output (at least to this point).
Zach Edey is legit, and so are the Boilermakers
If Virginia has the three best victories on the season so far with Baylor, Illinois and Michigan, Purdue might be a close second with back-to-back dominating wins over Gonzaga and Duke. The Boilermakers were unranked to start the season, popped in at No. 24 in Week 3 then skyrocketed to No. 5 in Week 4.
Zach Edey has been nearly unstoppable, averaging 22 points and 11 rebounds per game with a 61% eFG%. He draws fouls but doesn’t commit a lot, and he’s statistically the best offensive rebounder in the country. Purdue has the No. 1 offense per KenPom, and they’re doing it good balance and sharing the ball.
The Big 12 and SEC are no joke
Good luck to teams in the Big 12 and SEC this year. Honestly. You’ll need it. If you’re in the Big 12, the worst conference foe you’ll face at this point is No. 56 Kansas State, which has an 8-1 record. If you’re in the SEC, have fun with the six top-25 teams per KenPom. Tennessee has looked like the best team in the SEC early this season, but Kentucky, Alabama, Arkansas and Auburn will be difficult outs all season. In the Big 12, the trio of Texas, Baylor and Kansas will be a problem.
