THE period immediately after a major election tends to see relatively few opinion polls conducted, and even less public interest in the results of those polls. But the paradox is that it's also the period when new or surprising trends are most likely to emerge and chart a course for years to come. In the case of the first full-scale Scottish poll since last month's General Election, the trend is nothing radically new, but that is precisely what makes it so surprising.
Labour have retained their lead in Scottish voting intentions for Westminster, according to the Norstat poll, but their lead over the SNP has actually been slightly trimmed from five points on polling day to three points now - and although that's a very modest change, it ought to be taken seriously, because Norstat have weighted their results according to how respondents voted in July. On the Holyrood results, the SNP are three points ahead of Labour in the constituency ballot, which is a marginally bigger advantage than they held in the final pre-election poll from the same firm.
It might be tempting to shrug at numbers that are so similar to what we were used to before the election, but think about the context in which this poll was conducted. Labour have just returned to power after 14 years, which ought to be a considerable novelty. Some voters aren't even old enough to recall the previous Labour administration under Blair and Brown, and for many others it will be no more than a distant memory from childhood. Keir Starmer's landslide majority is practically identical to Tony Blair's in 1997, so he ought to have massive Blair-type momentum and excitement behind him right now.
And in Scotland, a major upheaval has just occurred with total SNP dominance ending after nine years. Labour asked people to reject the SNP on the specific basis that replacing the Tory government was an opportunity too good to miss, so if voters had truly bought into that narrative, there ought to currently be a wave of euphoria propelling Labour into a double-digit lead over the SNP, even if only temporarily. That simply isn't happening. Instead, Scotland's collective reaction to Labour rule seems to be "meh".
Unionist commentators are trying to look at the poll in a glass-half-full way and are pointing out that the Holyrood seats projection shows Labour only one seat behind the SNP, which would probably enable Labour's Scottish leader Anas Sarwar to become first minister with Tory and LibDem backing. But with almost two years still to go until the Scottish election, what matters for any party is not where they are right now but the direction in which they're travelling. Labour seem to be stuck in a dead end in spite of the most favourable circumstances imaginable. At the moment they haven't been in power for long enough to plausibly take the blame for anything that goes wrong, but that will soon change. Mid-term unpopularity may progressively kick in as Holyrood 2026 approaches, putting Labour into reverse and potentially leaving the SNP with a much more decisive advantage.
The supplementary questions from the poll confirm the SNP's underlying position is reasonably strong, with voters trusting them more than Labour to handle major policy areas such as health and social security. It's true that John Swinney's net personal ratings now lag behind those of Starmer and Sarwar, but net ratings tend to be less predictive of election results than a head-to-head "who would make the best first minister?" question. Redfield and Wilton are the only firm which regularly pose that question and they have generally found Anas Sarwar trailing his SNP couterpart, regardless of whether that person was Humza Yousaf or John Swinney.
It would be unexpected if the next Redfield and Wilton poll doesn't show another healthy advantage for Swinney.
All in all, then, the SNP are startlingly well-placed to win a fifth term in 2026, but retaining the pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament will be a much tougher nut to crack.
