As we pull into the NBA season’s official rest stop, plenty has surprised us.
Klay Thompson had an audacious return to the Warriors. Damian Lillard has been out for a month and a half, yet he’s done more on the court this season than Zion Williamson, who still hasn’t played. We’ve had enough reporting around vaccinations in Brooklyn for a lifetime, and just this past week, James Harden was shipped from the Nets to Philadelphia to become a Sixer.
With All-Star weekend upon us, we’ve broken out the NBA teams and happenings that have caught us off guard most, along with the things that haven’t veered much from the script at all to this point.
What we all should have seen coming, in a good way: Phoenix, Joel Embiid
By any measure, the Suns have been the NBA’s most consistent club for well over a year at this point.
They might have flown under the radar for much of last season despite having two All-Stars. But after coming within two victories of winning it all—then largely running it back roster-wise—there wasn’t much reason to suspect the Suns wouldn't be back in the conversation this season.
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After watching the Lakers—the Lakers!—be tabbed the West favorites by some, the Suns watched the rejuvenated Warriors get more shine to begin the campaign. And then when Phoenix got the media glare, it was because of allegations of racism and misogyny involving owner Robert Sarver, which came to light in a lengthy ESPN report.
But then the Suns went on a blistering tear, taking 18 games in a row between late October and early December. And the group is on fire again, having won 18 of its last 19, with the lone defeat over that span coming two weeks ago in Atlanta. The Suns have quietly opened a 6 1/2–game edge on the second-place Warriors in the standings.
Deandre Ayton, who entered the season as something of a potential question mark from a drama standpoint after not getting the max rookie extension he wanted, has been solid. And even when he hasn’t been able to play, the club’s found success with just about every center it’s used this campaign. The All-Star guards can still get to their spots whenever they want to. Phoenix is great on both ends and beats teams with a workmanlike, Spurs-ian style on a nightly basis.
On the topic of things that happen on a nightly basis: Joel Embiid is flat-out awesome.
He was a preseason MVP pick for some of us who figured he’d be asked to do more than ever in light of not having Ben Simmons, who chose to hold out while demanding a trade (one that’s finally happened, thank God).
While a title is the most obvious goal, like always, Embiid’s solid campaign for MVP is one of the other things at stake now that James Harden is a Sixer. The dynamic between him and Embiid—which so far has involved Harden unsuccessfully trying to teach Embiid how to mimic his patented moonwalk of a stepback—could potentially hinder some of the big man’s statistics. Harden has long been one of the league’s best passers, but he also thrives on a healthy amount of isolation play himself, as does Embiid from the post.
Yet Embiid may relish the occasional breathers: both because he’s been everything to Philly and because it potentially raises the Sixers’ ceiling if Harden can get healthy and play with more gusto now that he’s in the situation he asked for.
What we should have seen coming, in a bad way: The Lakers
Be honest: Did you really think there was a chance the answer to this wouldn’t be the Lakers?
We could dig into the crevices of nuance, sure. That Frank Vogel stuck far too long to certain lineups that never had a real chance to be successful, like ones with DeAndre Jordan and Avery Bradley that were being beaten by 16.9 points per 100 possessions. That more was expected from Talen Horton-Tucker, who’s having the worst season of his young career. That even with a roster this old, the injury bug has bitten off an absolute ton when it comes to this Lakers club.
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But the elephant in the room—how does Russell Westbrook fit this team?—was always the most important question facing Los Angeles. And any levelheaded analysis entering the season was at least a tad skeptical on whether the marriage could work. Pulling the ball out of LeBron’s hands to put it into Westbrook’s wasn’t ideal. And the “at least we’ll have another star in case one of LeBron or AD gets hurt” logic hasn’t really panned out, either. Those guys have missed plenty of time—and now Anthony Davis will miss even more time—but Westbrook rarely looks fully comfortable, regardless of who he’s on the floor with or without.
To Vogel’s credit, he has begun sitting Westbrook in the latter stages of games when he simply doesn’t have it, though it’s clearly frustrated the star guard. And when the 37-year-old James has been available, he has played at an MVP level this season—something he’s almost had to do between Westbrook’s struggles to fit and the abundance of injuries up and down the roster.
A number of things have gone wrong for this team. But it also seemed like a long shot for everything to go right for the Lakers, the way things did a couple of years ago. Aside from Davis merely being available, which is always a question mark, the club needed him to be the dominant perimeter jump shooter he was in the bubble. But that simply hasn’t been the case for the big man, who has since shot 22.9% from three over the past two campaigns—a flaw that makes the Westbrook fit even more of a challenge due to cramped spacing, even as Davis has looked more like himself in recent weeks.
The Lakers will reach the postseason. But expecting much of anything from them, with their losing record, seems misguided despite the names on the roster.
What we never saw coming, in a good way: The Grizzlies
The Raptors, picked to finish as low as 12th in the East by some, enter the break in seventh place, having won eight of 10. Guard Fred VanVleet, fully taking over for the departed Kyle Lowry, is an All-Star. And Pascal Siakam, back from shoulder surgery, is playing like one, having recently reeled off five straight games of 20 points or more and 60 percent shooting.
The youthful Cavs—who have two All-Stars of their own and were in virtually no one’s playoff picture before the season—suffered a pair of devastating injuries, yet have won better than 60% of their games. They would have home court advantage if the campaign ended today.
Speaking of injuries and absences, the Bulls—a club riddled with them—were certainly seen as underrated around these parts before the season beginning. Still, just about anyone would have argued they were more likely to finish outside the East’s playoff race than to finish in first. But the hobbled club finds itself at the top of the crowded conference at the break, with DeMar DeRozan hanging in as an MVP candidate and fourth-quarter colossus.
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If forced to drill things down to just one team, though, it’d be impossible to plug anyone but the Memphis Grizzlies in that “most surprising” role. Yes, Ja Morant is a deserving All-Star starter and candidate for MVP himself.
But you’re late to the game if you’re just now realizing that the Grizz—who’ve gone 12–3 in games without Morant—are more than just their world-class playmaker. They’re outscoring opponents by more (plus-5.5 points per 100 possessions) with Morant on the bench than they are with the star on the court (plus-4.2 points per 100 possessions). They’ve managed this with Dillon Brooks, their second-leading scorer and most rugged wing defender, missing more than half his games.
Residing in the top 10 in efficiency on both sides of the ball—my colleague, Michael Pina, wisely argues that Jaren Jackson Jr. should get DPOY consideration—Memphis sits two games back of the Warriors for second place out West; it’s remarkable for such a young club.
What we never saw coming, in a bad way: The Hawks
I’m not sure there was a bigger skeptic concerning Atlanta than me coming into this season.
After surprising just about everyone by reaching the Eastern Conference finals and cementing Trae Young as a superstar, the Hawks seemed like the league’s “it” team. There wasn’t really anything rooted in the X’s and O’s that spelled doom for this group, which was really young and talented, with a nice mix of veterans on the roster as well.
Yet that was what stood out to me: I figured people might assume too much about Atlanta’s taking the next step, despite the fact that young clubs usually endure growing pains—both collectively, and as individual talents. Not all growth happens on a linear timeline or during the same season. Egos can get involved, particularly when money is on the line, from a contractual standpoint. (Cam Reddish was reportedly traded for this reason.) And perhaps easiest to call out: Opposing teams have you on their radar—and on their film—once you achieve some level of success, like these Hawks did.
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So whatever boost was gained from putting Nate McMillan in place as coach toward the end of last year might not be as beneficial this season.
The Hawks are playing much, much better now, as opposed to a month ago, when they sat at 17–25. The return of ace defender De’Andre Hunter in mid-January was a huge shot in the arm, as were the full-time returns of both Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu at center.
Atlanta is hoping John Collins can be ready shortly after the All-Star break, as the Hawks have improved a ton defensively in the past month, a rate that ranks about league average—a huge improvement from earlier in the year, when they ranked third-worst on that end. (The Hawks have also drilled a higher percentage of their triples than any other club this past month. That said, offense generally hasn’t been this club’s problem.)
The Hawks’ remaining schedule is favorable, but it’s unclear whether the 10th-place club can make up enough ground to avoid the play-in scenario. But realistically, if it continues applying pressure on defense, there’s no reason Atlanta can’t at least approach last year’s success—even after an ugly, ugly start in 2021–22.
