We already know what the US grain supply and demand situation was at the end of October by studying the market price, or national cash indexes.
Most of the indexes were at their lowest levels in 4 to 5 years telling us there was abundant supplies to meet demand.
Looking ahead, corn and soybean futures spreads paint interesting pictures for supply and demand in the latter stages of the marketing year, though these spreads can and will change as we go along.
As if this week needed any more excitement, the Grains sector will see the release of the latest USDA Supply and Demand silliness Friday afternoon. I used to try to show people the foolishness of living and dying with each dropping from USDA, but I've moved past that and now just sit back and watch like it was a live action comedy. The older I get, the more I follow the advice of the late Charlie Munger who said (among other things), “It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.” One of the ways I try to be “consistently not stupid” is by ignoring government reports. You make your own call.
