New York (AFP) - Donald Trump has put his supporters on notice he expects to be arrested Tuesday in a hush-money case, issuing a call for protests that has security services bracing for a political circus at best -- and violence at worst.
Here is what to expect from the days ahead, which have the potential to see a former US president indicted for the first time ever -- even as the rebellious 76-year-old Republican campaigns for a second term in the White House.
- How likely is an indictment?–
Although the Manhattan district attorney's office has not confirmed any plans for an indictment, Trump's Saturday announcement was a major tell.
There are other signs too.
The porn star known as Stormy Daniels, who claims she was paid to not reveal her affair with Trump before the 2016 election, has cooperated with the grand jury.
Trump's former fixer Michael Cohen, who has acknowledged making the payment to Daniels and said he was later reimbursed, has also testified before the panel.
Another clear sign is that Trump himself was invited to testify, although he refused.
"Prosecutors almost never invite the target of the investigation to testify in the grand jury unless they're planning on indicting that individual," according to Pace University law professor and former prosecutor Bennett Gershman.
Fingerprints yes, handcuffs unlikely
A Trump indictment would begin a lengthy process that could last several months, as the case would face a mountain of legal issues and move toward jury selection.
In the immediate term, however, it would trigger several steps, including preparing for exactly how an arrest -- or more likely a surrender to authorities, given the non-violent nature of the charges and Trump's status as a former president -- would play out.
"This is really unprecedented, and there is no playbook for this," former long-time US Secret Service agent Robert McDonald, now a criminal justice professor at the University of New Haven, told AFP on Sunday.
He expects a "choreographed" scenario in which the Secret Service would make special arrangements with the district attorney's office for Trump to arrive at the courthouse in a secure fashion that does not make a "spectacle" out of the process.
In other words, no handcuffs and no perp walk through the court's front door, McDonald predicted.
Former federal prosecutor Renato Mariotti tweeted Saturday that he expects Trump "would appear voluntarily in court, be fingerprinted and booked, and would be released on bond."
Given Trump's prominence and his ongoing 2024 presidential bid, the judge likely would not deem the former president a flight risk and Trump would be free to go after processing, including any bond paid if required.
"My guess is he will not be held overnight," McDonald said.
Shan Wu, a former federal prosecutor now in private practice, agrees, adding that aside from the heavy security, a Trump "self-surrender" could likely look like any other white-collar case.
But Trump has a flair for the dramatic and some have openly wondered whether the combative ex-president might refuse to turn himself in, essentially challenging Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's office to arrest him.
"One could imagine Trump wanting to do that for the politics and the optics, to make himself look more sympathetic," Wu told AFP."That's something Bragg's office would be dreading."
- Security preparations?–
Law enforcement agencies are coordinating a major operation in the event Trump is indicted, including a ratcheting up of security measures, experts said.
But Trump urging supporters to "PROTEST, TAKE OUR NATION BACK!" presents a new wrinkle for authorities, given the violence that erupted on January 6, 2021, when his backers stormed the US Capitol seeking to halt certification of Trump's election defeat.
Pro-Trump groups are already mobilizing.The New York Young Republican Club is promoting a Monday event in lower Manhattan it bills as a "peaceful protest of Alvin Bragg's heinous attack" on Trump.
While authorities have given no indication they expect violence near the courthouse, CNN cited unnamed sources saying law enforcement agencies were addressing the potential for demonstrations by Trump supporters and opponents, with the risk of clashes.
Meanwhile, the police department in Washington, scene of the US Capitol riot two years ago, said Sunday it was "not aware of any" protests in the district related to Trump's possible indictment.
