The long summer recess is over and MPs have returned to Westminster for the final year of the 2019 Parliament.
With the general election widely expected to take place in the autumn of 2024, the Government has barely 12 months in which to pass any remaining legislation and get itself in position to go to the country.
As polling day gets closer, it will exert an ever larger influence over MPs’ thoughts and ministers’ decisions, meaning much of what happens over the next year will be done with at least half an eye on the election.
If the polls continue to show a strong Labour lead, this could mean a further breakdown in Conservative discipline as already-rebellious backbenchers focus more on keeping their seats than getting the Government’s programme through the Commons.
In legislative terms, a lack of time means the scope for big, transformative Bills is limited.
The Government is currently pursuing 16 Bills, with the most urgent being the Online Safety Bill.
Having already been carried over from a previous parliamentary session, parliamentary rules mean it must be passed by October 31 otherwise it will fall when Parliament is prorogued ahead of the King’s Speech.
The Bill has been complicated and controversial, but is expected to be a priority in the weeks remaining either side of the conference recess.
Of the other 15, several are either less controversial or closer to completing the legislative process and are likely to be passed by the end of October, including the Energy Bill and the Levelling Up and Regeneration Bill.
For the rest, the Government must decide whether it wants to carry them over to the next session or not.
Landmark legislation such as the Renters (Reform) Bill and the Victims and Prisoners Bill are likely to be carried over, but for others the situation is less clear. Every Bill carried over from this session will take time away from any legislation the Government wishes to introduce after the King’s Speech.
The contents of that speech, which is scheduled for November 7, remain to be seen, but limited parliamentary time means they are unlikely to include much in the way of significant, complicated reform.
Instead, it has been reported that the Government will seek to use the King’s Speech to propose a series of laws designed to create “dividing lines” for the coming election.
This could involve legislation on crime and justice – including measures to force defendants to attend their sentencing hearings – as well as more focus on migration and transgender rights where the Government believes Labour is out of step with public opinion.
There is also likely to be more legislation on animal welfare, with the moderate One Nation group privately threatening trouble if measures included in the abandoned Animal Welfare Bill are not brought back.
Electoral concerns will also dominate the two remaining fiscal events of the parliamentary term – an Autumn Statement, likely in November, and a spring Budget, likely around March.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt appears to have already ruled out tax cuts this autumn, but will face significant pressure for some sort of giveaway in March as the election draws ever nearer.
Finally, there will be a few more electoral tests before the big event itself.
By-elections in Mid Bedfordshire and Rutherglen and Hamilton West are expected to take place shortly before the party conferences.
A third by-election could take place if disgraced former whip Chris Pincher’s appeal against his eight-week suspension from the Commons fails. This would trigger a recall petition that could result in a contest in his Tamworth seat.
Labour will hope that these contests demonstrate its strength against both the Conservatives and the SNP, although the Liberal Democrats also believe they have a strong chance in Mid Bedfordshire.
