The Conservatives would lose seats across Wales including in its most loyal areas if an General Election were held today, analysis of polling by The New Statesman suggests.
At the last election in December 2019, the Conservative party won by a landslide with 365 seats. They made gains in Labour heartlands such as areas in Wales and northern England that voted Leave in the 2016 EU referendum.
In Wales, the Tory party managed their best result since 1983 with a total of 14 seats, gaining six seats from Labour, which were Wrexham, Delyn, Clwyd South, Vale of Clwyd, Ynys Môn, and Bridgend, as well as the only Liberal Democrat seat in Wales - Brecon and Radnorshire.
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However, according to both the New Statesman's analysis of its Britain Predicts and Survation polls, if an election were held today, nearly one in ten of the 2019 Tory voters would switch to Labour in the UK. You can find out more about the poll here.
Overall, Labour would win 318 seats - a 116 seat gain from 2019, whereas the Conservatives would have 232 seats, which would mean they would lose 133 seats from 2019.
The majority of blue constituencies in would also turn red. Labour would take back Wrexham, Delyn, Clwyd South, Vale of Clwyd, Ynys Môn, and Bridgend.
The biggest fall in the Conservative vote would be with the constituency of Wrexham. In 2019, the party got 45.3% of the vote, whereas the poll suggests that if a general election was to take place today they would only win 30.5% - a -14.8% decrease from the previous election. The Labour party would win with 48.4% of the vote in comparison - a 9.4% increase from their 2019 election in which they got 39% of the vote in the constituency.
On top of this, Labour could make gains in areas that have been longer-standing areas of Tory support, for example, the poll predicts Aberconwy, Clwyd West, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, Vale of Glamorgan and Monmouth turning red.
Among these are seats that have been dominated by the Tories for years. It was Blair's overwhelming win in 1997 when Labour last won seats like Monmouth, the Vale of Glamorgan, Clwyd West, Preseli Pembrokeshire and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire.
Of these constituencies, the biggest swing for Labour would be Monmouth and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire with a 8.2% increase from 2019's vote. The biggest decrease for the Tory party would be in Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire with -16.1%. Significantly, that is the seat currently represented by Welsh Secretary and cabinet member Simon Hart.
According to the projections, Montgomeryshire and Brecon and Radnorshire would the only seats to remain Conservative, with the Tory vote in Montgomeryshire decreasing by -18.6% from 2019's general election, and Brecon and Radnorshire's Tory vote slipping by -17.3%.
Meanwhile, Arfon, Dwyfor Meirionnydd, Ceredigion and Carmarthen East and Dinefwr would still remain as Plaid Cymru's heartlands.
According to Ben Walker in The New Statesman however, a lot could change before the next general election, which must take place before May 2024.
He wrote: "Voters are more volatile and promiscuous than in past decades. A hefty chunk of current Labour votes, for instance, do not rule out voting Lib Dem or Green. Six per cent can see themselves voting Tory. As many as 11 per cent of current Tory voters can see themselves voting Labour.
"In a world where elections are won and lost by fine margins, these are not small numbers.
"This volatile climate, however, may mean that Johnson and the Conservative Party’s poor ratings might not be as fatal as we think. It’s “easier” now to get worse ratings than before and it might also be easier to recover.
"The ceilings and floors of our parties and politicians, their room to climb and fall, have been respectively raised and lowered, so to speak. The old loyalties and tribalisms, hit by Ukip, Brexit, Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson, are now weaker than ever.
"Conventional assumptions – such as no prime minister being able to recover from record low poll ratings – are irrelevant, to my mind. Today, it seems, more voters are up for grabs than ever. A net positive, for all concerned."
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