The NFL trade deadline is just hours away, and the New Orleans Saints may not have a player with more appeal — and availability — to other teams than Jameis Winston. Their backup quarterback is overqualified for that role and deserves an opportunity to start around the league. And a recent season-ending injury to Minnesota Vikings starter Kirk Cousins has led to plenty of speculation as the deadline approaches.
We’ll stoke those fires a little bit. There have not been any credible reports linking the Vikings to trade talks with New Orleans centering on Winston or any other player, but we’ll play along. What should the Saints seek in exchange for Winston’s services?
Minnesota has plenty of draft picks with multiple selections in round four (their own pick and another choice coming from the Detroit Lions), round five (from the Kansas City Chiefs and Cleveland Browns), and round six (their own and a pick from the Las Vegas Raiders, through the New England Patriots), so we’ll start there.
Some recent backup quarterback trades have brought in picks in rounds four (Trey Lance to the Dallas Cowboys this year, Nick Foles to the Chicago Bears in 2020), five (Kyle Allen to the Washington Commanders in 2020) and seven (Case Keenum to the Buffalo Bills in 2022) and a couple of intriguing swaps:
- Josh Dobbs and a seventh-round pick for a fifth rounder
- Jarrett Stidham and a seventh-round pick for a sixth rounder
- Ryan Finley and a seventh-round pick for a sixth rounder
- Ryan Tannehill and a sixth-round pick for a seventh-round pick and a fourth-round choice in the next year’s draft
We’ve also seen backup passers traded for conditional late-round picks like Nick Mullens (seventh rounder), Baker Mayfield (fifth), as well as Teddy Bridgewater, Joe Flacco and Gardner Minshew (all sixth rounders). But that’s such little compensation that the Saints would do better to just hold onto Winston in case he’s needed in an emergency.
Still, it’s easy to see why Minnesota is a compelling trade partner. Winston’s prorated $647,000 salary for the rest of the season would be very easy to fit under the salary cap, and the Vikings have rallied back from an 0-3 start to their current 4-4 record. They’re not far behind the 6-2 Detroit Lions in a weak NFC North. Winston would be an upgrade over backups Sean Mannion and Jaren Hall.
So what kind of compensation should the Saints seek (in hypothetical trade talks)? Recent deals would suggest a fair deal brings back a fifth- or sixth-round pick at best, though the Saints could maybe squeeze a fourth rounder out of Minnesota by offering to throw in a sixth or seventh rounder of their own. The Saints don’t currently own a fourth-round pick but they’re hoping to get one or two of them when compensatory picks are awarded in March. The way things stand right now they won’t have any draft picks between the second rounder coming back to them from the Denver Broncos and that compensatory fourth rounder, which would fall at the end of the round — putting a gap of as many as 100 picks before they’ll go back on the board.
With that in mind, here’s our trade proposal:
- Vikings get: Jameis Winston and a 2024 sixth-round pick (projected at No. 193)
- Saints get: A 2024 fourth-round pick (projected at No. 105)
That isn’t a great return for either side, frankly. And it’s probably more than the Vikings would be willing to pay. It’s why there doesn’t appear to be much momentum brewing for a deal between the two teams. Expect Winston to stay in New Orleans for the rest of the season and test free agency again in the spring.
