Expectations were enormous for the Indianapolis Colts quarterback who came into 2024 with just 173 NFL snaps to his name. But Anthony Richardson earned it. He looked like the next step in pro football’s offensive evolution.
Richardson’s size and athleticism set the stage for him to build from everything Josh Allen has done with the Buffalo Bills. After a pair of injuries cut his rookie season short after four games, Colts general manager Chris Ballard looked at a nine-win team and decided his young quarterback was the booster rocket needed for a postseason breakthrough. The 2024 offseason was devoted to retaining veteran talent and adding a few extra tweaks — like second round draft pick Adonai Mitchell — to help Richardson thrive.
After three weeks (and thanks to Bryce Young’s benching), Richardson has been the NFL’s least efficient starting quarterback. Indianapolis improved to 1-2 with a win over the Chicago Bears, but while Chicago came away with reasons for optimism with its toolsy young quarterback, the Colts were faced with more questions about a misfiring offense.
Flex on them @maine_savage23 😤
📺: #CHIvsIND on CBS
pic.twitter.com/VQRo4sCIrv— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) September 22, 2024
So what’s going on with Richardson — and is it anything to be worried about beyond “he’s a young quarterback still finding his place in the NFL?”
Defenses are daring Richardson to beat them with throws from the pocket
Through three games, Richardson has been blitzed nine times in 72 dropbacks, per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. That 12.5 percent blitz rate would rank 31st among all defenses if it belonged to a single team; only the Buffalo Bills have utilized extra pass rushers less often in 2024.
That’s down from a 26 percent blitz rate as a rookie. Why are teams less interested in trying to fluster Richardson in the pocket? Well, two reasons. The first is he’s a dynamic runner. He’s averaged nearly six yards per carry as a pro and is averaging 12 yards per scramble in 2024, per Pro Football Reference. His 64 percent success rate on run plays as a rookie — defined as a play that gains at least 40 percent of yards needed for a first down or touchdown on first down, 60 percent of yards needed on second down, and 100 percent on third or fourth down — was second in the NFL to only Allen.
As such, keeping a spy on him who isn’t crashing into the pocket but patrolling the space just beyond the line of scrimmage makes sense. The other aspect is, well, Richardson has an absolute cannon and can do terrible things downfield against single coverage.
bah gawd, A-Rich. @GVOaant
📺: #HOUvsIND on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/5H0hklc1nX— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024
(That’s not single coverage, but you get the point.)
Instead, opposing teams are standing pat, filling the secondary with defenders and daring Richardson to pick them apart. He’s got more time to throw and been given the green light to make plays downfield, as evidenced by his average throw distance rising from 7.7 yards beyond the line of scrimmage as a rookie to 12.6 in year two. Unfortunately for the Colts, he’s struggled to put the ball where it needs to be.
THAT'S how you start the second half 🔥
📺: #CHIvsIND on CBS pic.twitter.com/ny5LweAcNu
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) September 22, 2024
Richardson’s other misses weren’t as spectacular, but still frustrating. Here’s his first third down of Week 3. With 10 yards to go it’s a clear passing down. Still, the Bears only rush four men. Richardson steps up in the pocket and makes the right read to an on-time Alec Pierce.
Then he zips the ball over his head, necessitating a punt.
Two drives later, it’s the same situation. Richardson faces third and 10. The Bears drop seven guys into coverage. The young quarterback finds Pierce again and this time hits him for a 44-yard gain.
That’s great, but that ball hung just long enough to turn a play that could have ended in the end zone into one that lands in the red zone. That’s not a serious problem unless your quarterback’s brain breaks on third-and-goal and, well:
Flex on them @maine_savage23 😤
📺: #CHIvsIND on CBS
pic.twitter.com/VQRo4sCIrv— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) September 22, 2024
I didn’t want to repeat that clip, but it bears repeating. Richardson’s flaws aren’t merely ball placement. He occasionally makes some truly Rex Grossman-adjacent “[expletive] it, I’m doing the damn thing” calls that backfire wildly.
Richardson is completing less than 50 percent of his passes through three games. Pro Football Reference pegs his on-target throw rate at 56.5 percent.
That’s not to say Richardson is making opponents pay when they introduce static to his backfield. In 24 pressured dropbacks he’s completed just 40 percent of his passes and thrown three interceptions in 20 attempts — the same number of interceptions he’s tossed in 54 passes from a clean pocket.
Here he is on third-and-three late in the second quarter. Chicago once again rushes four guys. Richardson, once again, makes the right read to an open Josh Downs headed toward the sideline. But instead of a first down, we get yet another throw way too high for anyone in a Colts uniform to catch it.
This is fixable, but Indianapolis has to do so on the fly
Richardson’s accuracy is a concern, but a fixable one. He’s got a cache of talented wideouts with solid catch radii who can turn a fatal flaw into a mere malady. He’s just got to stop launching clutch throws three yards over their heads.
It’s clear Richardson can make winning decisions. There are throws where he understands where he’s supposed to put the ball in tight coverage. He finds room to extend plays and turns his attention downfield for potential game-breaking plays. Look at this fourth quarter throw that could have iced the game:
Richardson gets blitzed this time. He escapes pressure and rolls left with ease. He spots Mitchell running open with Kevin Byard struggling in pursuit. He makes the right read!
But after an afternoon of overthrows, this one is a touch too soft. The ball hangs, Mitchell has to slow down and Byard has the space to turn a potential 59-yard touchdown into a long incompletion. That’s a placement issue but also potentially a communication one with a rookie wideout who’ll better understand what his QB needs going forward.
We’ve seen big-armed, toolsy quarterbacks dial into their potential before. Allen completed 56 percent of his passes at Wyoming. He completed 52.8 percent of his passes in a 12-game rookie season — Richardson is currently at 54.8 percent seven games into his NFL career. After a rocky start, the Buffalo Bills All-Pro dialed back his runs, found comfort in chaos and united with newly-acquired Stefon Diggs for a year three breakthrough in which he earned MVP consideration.
Unfortunately for the Colts, Allen is an outlier, a player whose resume suggested extremely long odds had to be overcome to get this far. While Richardson is flanked by a solid receiving corps, there’s no single fixer a la Diggs who can bail him out of big moments. Even if there were, it wouldn’t make a difference on the throws that are lasered six feet above the outstretched arms of their intended targets.
Indianapolis has one of the most purely exciting quarterbacks in the game. So far, the Colts “let him cook” offense has resulted in overheated throws and cold gains. The good news is Richardson’s vision and arm strength are not the problem here. He’s making good reads and, boneheaded mistakes aside, delivering balls on time.
The bad news is these passes haven’t been accurate, burning through pages of Jim Bob Cooter’s playbook with little to show for it. If Richardson can calm himself down in the pocket and deliver on target strikes to his intended receiver, the Indianapolis offense will flow. Opponents will go back to blitzing him with regularity and feed into the chaos where his tools can thrive. Jonathan Taylor might even find the room to run that could restore him to something approaching 2021 form.
If not, the Colts will continue their slog through a disappointing season. That doesn’t mean it will be the end of the line for Richardson — we’re still just seven games into his NFL career, after all. It just means Indianapolis will know where it needs to focus next offseason in hopes of meeting his potential as a franchise quarterback.
