The Kansas City Chiefs will enjoy a bye week during the AFC wild-card round, but you can be certain they’ll be keeping a close eye on every team.
One of the most important ways NFL teams prepare for their opponents is to exploit their weaknesses. The playoffs feature the best of the best, but no team is perfect. Today we’re going to identify each AFC playoff team’s weakness and how the Chiefs can take advantage of them in a potential matchup.
Los Angeles Chargers
With the Chiefs and Chargers being divisional opponents and having already played each other twice this season, there aren’t going to be a lot of surprises to pull out. If these two teams match up in the divisional round it will come down to who protects the ball and executes most efficiently.
One way the Chiefs can do that would be to commit to the running game offensively. The L.A. defense is the fifth worst in the NFL, surrendering 146 yards per game on the ground. It is also allowing a league-high 5.4 yards per carry. In their last game against the Chargers, the Chiefs rushed for 163 yards, led by Isiah Pacheco who had 107 yards on 15 carries.
The Chargers also struggle with the running game on the offensive side of the ball. They rank 30th in both rushing yards per game (89) and yards per carry at 3.8. The Chiefs’ defense has consistently been in the top 10 against the run this season, providing an opportunity for the K.C. defense to make the Chargers one-dimensional on offense.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are probably the biggest surprise AFC playoff team. They visited the Chiefs in K.C. back in Week 9, losing 27-17. The Chiefs turned the ball over three times in that game but had nearly 500 total yards of offense. K.C. did a good job of exposing Jacksonville’s glaring weakness: its pass defense.
The Jaguars have the 28th-ranked pass defense in the NFL, allowing 239 passing yards per game. They also struggle to take down the quarterback, ranking 26th in sacks.
Patrick Mahomes threw for 331 yards and four touchdowns against the Jags in Week 9 and wasn’t sacked. The Chiefs would have a huge advantage with Mahomes as the NFL’s leader in passing yards and touchdowns against the struggling secondary of Jacksonville.
Miami Dolphins
If the Dolphins can pull the upset over the Buffalo Bills, they will come to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs in the divisional round. It will be an uphill battle for Miami to take out Buffalo as it will be without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Rookie Skylar Thompson will start in his place.
If the Chiefs face the Dolphins next week, they could also face Thompson. He will likely be a big weakness for the Miami offense, having started only two games this season and seeing sporadic action in a few other games. Thompson threw for just 5.1 yards per completion with one touchdown and three interceptions.
Miami also struggles against the pass defensively, ranking 27th in passing yards allowed per game and has given up the seventh most passing touchdowns in the league. It seems safe to say that Mahomes and the K.C. offense would put up a fair number of points against the Dolphins’ secondary, making it even harder for Thompson to try and keep up.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens will also likely be without their starting quarterback in Lamar Jackson. Backup Tyler Huntley’s status is in question as well, which could force Baltimore to start third-stringer Anthony Brown. If the Ravens can somehow get past the Cincinnati Bengals, the Chiefs could face Huntley or Brown.
Although not nearly as dynamic as Jackson, Huntley can run the ball effectively. Huntley is a game manager-like quarterback who will take the safe, easy throws and not stretch the field very often.
Brown is an undrafted rookie free agent who threw two interceptions and zero touchdowns in his one and only career start (coincidently against the Bengals). Getting to face Huntley or Brown would be a golden opportunity as the Ravens are a very complete team with no real holes in their roster.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have one of the most impressive rosters in the NFL but have suffered key injuries within their defense. Pro Bowl outside linebacker Von Miller went down with an ACL tear, starting safety Micah Hyde has missed most of the season with a neck injury, and of course the tragic situation with safety Damar Hamlin.
When the Chiefs played the Bills back in Week 6, Buffalo had the fourth-ranked pass defense in the league but dropped to 15th to finish the season. The Bills are vulnerable in the middle of the field, which is where the Chiefs like to work. Quarterbacks have had more time to throw with Miller out, who still leads the Bills in sacks despite missing the final five games.
Offensively, the Bills’ Achilles heel is turnovers. They have committed the third-most turnovers in the NFL with 27. The Bills fumbled the ball 13 times this season, trailing only the Indianapolis Colts in that category, and Josh Allen threw the third-most interceptions among all quarterbacks with 14.
The Chiefs’ defense came on toward the end of the season by forcing turnovers, taking the ball away eight times in their final five games.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Chiefs will certainly be doing their homework on the Bengals, having lost to them three times in the last calendar year. No doubt the Bengals are a great team and are once again getting hot at the right time, but they’re not without a couple of weaknesses.
Cincinnati’s offensive line has been hit hard by injuries in the last month. Right tackle La’el Collins has been put on injured reserve with a torn ACL and guard Alex Cappa is out of action with an ankle injury. Even with those two starters playing, the Bengals’ offensive line was struggling.
Joe Burrow is the sixth-most sacked quarterback in the league and the Bengals have the 29th rushing offense in the NFL, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry.
The Bengals have also struggled to rush the passer, recording the fourth-fewest sacks this season. All of these factors would give the Chiefs a great opportunity to control the trenches on both sides of the ball, something it struggled to do against the Bengals earlier this season.
