Sainz has been pretty open that he did not want to go into the 2024 season without his F1 future beyond the end of the year sorted.
Speaking exclusively to Motorsport.com last June about the situation, Sainz said: “I'm not going to lie, I don’t like going into my last year of a contract without really knowing where I'm racing the next year.
“I went through that process both with Red Bull and Renault, and I know it’s not ideal as an athlete, and as a driver. It's just not the right thing. And that's why I have put this winter as a reference to try and figure out my future.”
This stance was not at odds with Ferrari’s own preference too. Team boss Fred Vasseur had even made it clear during his annual Christmas lunch at Maranello that sorting both Ferrari drivers’ contracts out before racing going again was a clear “goal”.
“We met and started discussions, but we are a little behind the initial plan,” he said at the time. “I don't consider it a problem at all, we will make a decision soon."
While there are still five weeks to go before both Sainz and Ferrari’s provisional deadline is up, the fact that the team elected to go with Leclerc’s announcement alone – rather than wait and go public with both drivers at the same time – has prompted some to suggest that things may not be as completely nailed as hoped for.
It is understood that Sainz is after a two-year extension, to take him through to the end of the 2026 season, but an agreement still seems quite far away.
And while talks are ongoing, in the background there have been whispers that Alex Albon is a serious alternative with the Williams driver believed to be out of contract at the end of this year.
On one side it is entirely feasible that too much is being read into the situation over Ferrari announcing Leclerc alone because, unlike other squads, the team very rarely announces both drivers at the same time.
There also remains plenty of time for Ferrari, having got Leclerc’s situation sorted, to now nail Sainz’s deal and give the team total driver security for at least the next two years.
The Leclerc pairing
From Ferrari’s perspective, there certainly seems little reason to question whether or not Sainz is up to the job of staying there.
His performances over the three seasons spent at Maranello have been excellent, and the combination with Leclerc has created one of the most complete pairings in the paddock who help push the team on.
Leclerc has great natural talent that allows him to stand out in qualifying and the heat of battle, while Sainz is a consummate professional with great know-how and technical sensitivity – qualities that are very useful to engineers.
The two drivers are very evenly matched, and any differences between them are marginal – but ultimately are a complement in lifting the overall strength of the team.
However, the fact remains that the negotiations between Ferrari and Sainz's representatives are taking longer than expected. And the silence about progress has only served to fuel speculation about what is really going on.
What is obvious though is that Sainz is in a much stronger position to negotiate better terms than he was last time around.
Back on 21 April 2022, the Spaniard’s renewal for the 2023 and 2024 seasons was announced at a time when Leclerc had had two wins and a second place from the first three races, while Sainz had had a runner-up spot in Bahrain and third place in Saudi Arabia.
Two years on, it is very likely that Carlos has his eye on better terms, not only on the financial front, but also other contractual elements like the duration of the contract.
It is almost certainly no coincidence that Ferrari avoided communicating the duration of its new agreement with Leclerc, as it is a sensitive piece of data for understanding the Scuderia's long-term strategy.
If, as is hypothesised, the agreement is for three seasons until the end of 2027 (with an option for the next two), it is yet another confirmation that Maranello sees Leclerc as its fundamental asset for the future.
In such a scenario, it is not easy for Sainz to fit into his role. There is no suggestion of Ferrari having a clear number one and number two driver tag, but there are other priorities – like with commercial partners and media focus – where teams prefer to base themselves around one driver.
Saying that, victory is tremendously important for those at the helm of the team. This was obvious at last year’s Singapore Grand Prix where the entire Ferrari team rallied around Sainz.
Ultimately, Ferrari knows that Sainz represents the best possible choice for the 2025/26 two-year period, and Carlos knows equally well that remaining two more years at the Prancing Horse is the best option for his career.
But as talks drag on, getting a deal across the line could require compromises from both parties.
Is Albon an alternative plan?
In such a scenario where driver/team discussions reach an impasse, what is important to understand is the other options that are available on the market.
Lando Norris’ decision to commit long-term to McLaren means he has now been removed from the equation for quite a while.
So, if Ferrari wanted someone else who would fit the bill of a team player for 2025 and beyond, with good technical knowledge and the understanding of the way big teams work, then Albon is an obvious candidate.
Last year, there was speculation in Italy that he was Ferrari’s preferred route for the long term – but this was denied at the time by Vasseur because he said that it was too early to think about driver negotiations.
The Thai driver is understood to be a free agent for 2025 and, while loving his life at Williams, the attraction of joining a legend like Ferrari would be something very difficult to turn down.
Speaking last year, Albon said that he was in no rush to sort out a Williams contract as he deliberately wanted to see what was available on the market.
"I think I have the confidence in myself to keep myself open,” he said.
"I want to give myself the chance to be able to fight for wins and fight for podiums. And what it comes down to is, at that time and in that time, can we bring this team [Williams] to be that team?"
Should an alternative driver be a path that Ferrari goes down, it would certainly not mean the end of Sainz’s F1 career.
He has regularly been linked with Audi – and praised the German manufacturer recently after his father’s victory with it in the Dakar Rally – and even somewhere like Aston Martin would be a good option.
But it’s fair to say that for both Sainz and Ferrari, sticking together offers more guarantees than going their separate ways.
