DALLAS — Just when you thought you were free of ubiquitous political campaigns — and their television commercials, text messages, direct mail and constant news coverage — the 2024 presidential election season is underway.
Even if you’re suffering from election fatigue, it’ll be hard to ignore what could be one of the most compelling elections in our nation’s history.
On Tuesday, former President Donald Trump is expected to announce his campaign for the White House. His entry into the race could set off a frenzy of activity, including announcements from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and other Republican contenders.
On the Democratic Party side, President Joe Biden said last week he intends to run for reelection, even as speculation continues that he’ll leave the White House after one term.
And what would a presidential election be without Texans? Two Republicans — Sen. Ted Cruz and Gov. Greg Abbott — could be in the national mix. Whatever Cruz decides could profoundly affect Lone Star politics, with contenders from both parties eyeing his Senate seat.
“It’s going to be a wild and fascinating presidential election cycle,” said Dallas lawyer and former Dallas County GOP chairman Jonathan Neerman. “When have you had the potential of a wide-open campaign on both sides? It’s going to be a lot of fun.”
Trump factor
Since his 2020 loss to Biden, Trump has continued to lead the GOP. But at least 14 of the former president’s hand-picked midterm candidates had a bad night Tuesday, reducing the predicted Republican red wave to a babbling brook.
Trump’s endorsements included 2020 election deniers and hopefuls with little to no political experience. Experts and some Republicans are blaming the former president, contending better candidates would have better positioned the GOP to take the House and the Senate.
As it stands, Republicans are projected to win the House by a slim margin. The Senate is still up for grabs. But it’s one of the worst performances in a midterm from a party out of power. Only seven times in history has the party in the White House gained seats in a midterm election.
“I still think Trump runs until I hear the words, ‘I am not running for president of the United States,’ come out of his mouth,” said Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of the nonpartisan newsletter Inside Elections. “He will always find a way to deflect blame or deflect losses. And so even though his candidates fell short in many races, he will blame them, or blame something else other than himself.”
The DeSantis question
The big question on the GOP side is whether DeSantis will enter the race. He easily won reelection with help from several Florida Democratic strongholds, including Miami-Dade County. His strength throughout Florida, historically a presidential battleground, could give him an advantage in the 2024 contest. DeSantis is sitting on nearly half of the $200 million he raised for his gubernatorial campaign, which could be used as seed money for 2024.
“DeSantis had a great night and it certainly will embolden him in his effort to run for president,” Gonzales said. “I’m still not sure whether he will challenge Trump.”
After Republicans’ weaker than expected performance in the midterm elections, Trump might not be able to keep ambitious rivals out of the primary. Even then, he’s the favorite.
“If Trump emerges from these elections weaker, it could embolden more candidates to primary him,” Gonzales said. “That might help his chances because he still has a strong base of support within the Republican Party. And other candidates could divide any voters who are looking for another alternative.”
Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, says DeSantis is a likely contender for president, no matter what Trump decides.
“DeSantis is the most obvious opponent for him and was put in a good position …winning by 19 percentage points in Florida,” he said. “Just amazing. Republicans didn’t have this kind of mandate under (former Gov.) Jeb Bush, so he’s in.”
Other names mentioned as possible 2024 contenders include former Vice President Mike Pence, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Florida Sen. Rick Scott and Cruz.
“Somebody else can run, maybe several somebodies,” Sabato said. “This is an opportunity that politicians can’t resist.”
Biden’s future
On the Democratic Party side, Sabato said he thinks the 79-year-old Biden — if he remains in good health — will run again.
“Because Biden did so well in the midterms, the argument for pushing him aside is now gone,” he said. “God forbid the president becomes unhealthy, but that is the only thing that can really take him out of it at this point.”
Gonzales isn’t so sure.
“I still don’t think Biden’s going to run again,” he said. “He will be our first president to serve in his 80s. Democrats have avoided a midterm shellacking, but he’s still an unpopular president. And if it looks like he puts the White House at risk of a Republican or Trump takeover, then he’s going to get a lot of pressure not to run again.”
Rebecca Acuña, a Dallas Democrat who led Biden’s 2020 general election campaign in Texas, said he’s the best choice for the party in 2024.
“He has a strong record and the midterm results threw out any questions about viability, especially if you feel the elections were a referendum on him,” she said. “He’s shown he can win in places where Democrats haven’t won in a while, like Williamson and Tarrant counties in Texas.”
Texas connections
The Lone Star State could be a factor in 2024 national politics if Cruz, the last candidate standing in the 2016 GOP primary against Trump, opts for another White House run. The two-term senator told The Dallas Morning News last month that he is not focused on 2024 politics.
He campaigned nationwide for GOP congressional candidates and was one of the first Republican surrogates to land in Georgia this week for the Senate runoff between former Dallas Cowboys star Herschel Walker and the incumbent Democrat, Raphael Warnock.
Trump, 76, and Cruz were bitter rivals in 2016 who formed an alliance after the Texan backed Trump against Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Most analysts say he still wants to be president.
“History tells us it’s his goal. I don’t think that’s changed,” said Republican consultant Matthew Langston, who is based in Austin and formerly worked for the consultant firm that handled Cruz’s 2016 campaign. “Cruz has been on the campaign trail helping other Republicans and leaving every option that he can open for himself.”
Cruz has said he’s waiting to see what Trump does and has chided GOP hopefuls who say they’ll run no matter what.
That’s “idiotic,” Cruz told the conservative Washington Examiner. “The whole world will change depending on what Donald Trump decides.”
He’s right, according to most observers, who don’t see a path for Cruz against Trump or DeSantis.
“I’d be surprised if he actually ran against Trump,” Sabato said. “He’s practically become an appendage of Trump. He’s worked hard to keep himself from being criticized by Trump, and he always seems to be at Trump’s side.”
If Trump doesn’t run, Gonzales said it’s a wide-open field, which could make a presidential run attractive for Gov. Abbott, who easily won reelection amid a GOP sweep of Texas.
Abbott has a national platform because of his fights with the White House over border security. He started the movement to bus migrants from the Texas-Mexico border to northern states.
Over the summer, Abbott didn’t register much in presidential straw polls that had Trump and DeSantis at Nos. 1 and 2. The Florida governor overshadowed the Texan with an even bigger win Tuesday than Abbott’s 11-point drubbing of Democrat Beto O’Rourke.
“He had a very impressive showing and, surprisingly, he didn’t get much attention,” Sabato said. “That’s because of the DeSantis home run. Ron DeSantis absorbed what attention was being given to Republicans, because the big story was Democrats holding off the Republicans in Congress, for the most part.”
Abbott could be in line for a cabinet position if a Republican wins the White House. Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who twice ran for president, served as energy secretary under Trump.
“It’s logical,” Sabato said. “Like Rick Perry was selected for the cabinet, one would think that Greg Abbott in his third term would be in the mix, if he wanted a cabinet position.”
Vinny Minchillo, a Plano-based GOP consultant who worked on Utah Sen. Mitt Romney’s presidential campaigns, agreed Abbott was in a strong political position but is obscured by other contenders.
“He’s in the conversation,” he said. “He’s a guy who could certainly throw his hat in the ring, but I don’t think he does.”
At the moment, Trump is front and center.
“Had Trump candidates run the table … then he would have been undeniable,” Minchillo said. “Now he’s going to have to get in there and he’s going to have to fight.”
Some Texas GOP leaders are already praising DeSantis.
“He took risks. He rejected moderation. He inspired people,” Texas GOP chairman Matt Rinaldi said in a tweet. “This is the path forward for the GOP.”
That prompted former Texas Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson, a Republican, to criticize Trump.
“The GOP should take note, but it needs to go beyond that. It needs to dump Trump,” he responded on Twitter. “He’s a loser who will take our party down and virtually every elected R in Texas knows that. Let’s see who’s first to step up and say it. DeSantis is the man.”
Though the odds support a Trump/Biden rematch, Sabato said to expect surprises over the next two years.
“Something will happen,” he said. “I don’t know what it is. I don’t know on which side, maybe both sides, but something’s going to happen that makes it different and upsets all of the calculations we’ve made ahead of time.”
